Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
722 FXUS65 KMSO 291947 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 147 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and Thunderstorms across northwest Montana this afternoon capable of heavy rain - Warming and drying trend this weekend into next week A low pressure system currently over eastern Montana is causing northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies this afternoon. This flow pattern along with lingering mid-level moisture will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms, particularly over northwest Montana. These storms will be capable of producing localized heavy rain and gusty outflow winds under the stronger cores. The storms will start to diminish after sunset this evening. A strong ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies this weekend into the first part of next week. Temperatures will be steadily climbing each day with afternoon readings being back in the 90s for most valleys of western Montana and breaking the century mark in the lower valleys of north central Idaho. These temperatures are around 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Linger smoke from regional fires could hamper temperatures from reaching their full potential. Temperatures for Sunday into Monday for the Orofino to Riggins region will have to be monitor for the potential heat risk conditions. The majority of the models (~60%) are showing that the ridge will move towards the west by mid next week. This change will allow temperatures to cool a few degrees by Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across northwest Montana into western central Montana this afternoon. These storms will be capable of localized heavy rain and gusty outflow winds near the stronger cores. KMSO and KGPI have the best potential of being impacted by this convection and to a lesser extent KBTM this afternoon and evening. A ridge of high pressure will be building over the region this weekend causing fair fly conditions other than the potential for hazy conditions due to regional fires. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$