426
FXUS65 KMSO 160757
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
157 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly dry for the rest of the week, warming to near and above
  normal

- A couple weak disturbances increasing afternoon wind potential
  Thursday and Saturday.

- Another cool down with showers early next week?


The low pressure system responsible for significant rainfall and
high winds across northwest Montana is moving east. Northwesterly
flow aloft will take over, bringing seasonably warmer
temperatures and a drying trend to last through the week.
Temperatures today will still be a few degrees below normal, and
they will gradually rise throughout the week, reaching a few
degrees above normal by Saturday. As temperatures slowly rise,
daytime minimum relative humidity will decline, pointing to a
drier atmosphere and increasing concerns for conditions conducive
to wildland fire growth on Thursday and Friday. Areas of greatest
concern will be western Idaho and Clearwater counties where
minimum relative humidity will be in the low teens. Increasing
afternoon westerly winds of 20-30 mph under a tightening north-
south pressure gradient aloft on Thursday will complicate fire
weather concerns further for west-central and southwest Montana,
as well as Lemhi County.

The only exception to the warm/dry theme for the week will be a
fast-moving shortwave trough moving along the Canadian border on
Thursday. This feature will bring clouds and chances for rain to
areas just south of the border in Lincoln and Flathead counties to
include Glacier Park.

Through the coming weekend, another mostly-dry trough will move
through the Northern Rockies, keeping temperatures from reaching
their maximum potential for the time of year, but again bringing
fire weather concerns.

By the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe of next week, models are
beginning to pick up on another chance for a cool and wet
disturbance to impact the region. Exact details on timing, track,
and intensity of this system are still too far out to hone in on.


&&

.AVIATION... A drying and clearing trend for the Northern Rockies
airspace will begin today. Low stratus will persist at KBTM and
areas along the Continental Divide through late morning. By
afternoon, expect mostly clear skies and light winds across the
Northern Rockies.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$