230
FXUS65 KMSO 140838
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
238 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGES:

-  Moderate heat risk impacts across low elevations of north-
   central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon

-  Strong northeast winds 30-45+ mph this evening and overnight
   tonight, with risk for spotty power outages, tree damage, and
   dangerous conditions for boaters on area lakes of northwest
   Montana. Rain will accompany the frontal passage tonight and on
   Tuesday

-  Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures for Wednesday into
   the weekend


Hot temperatures will continue today for the lower elevations of
north-central Idaho, with daytime highs in the triple digits for
the lower Salmon and Clearwater River valleys.

Satellite imagery early this morning is showing a subtle
disturbance over central British Columbia moving southeast towards
the Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana. This feature will
amplify and enter the Northern Rockies later today. An
unseasonably strong cold front will accompany this system, moving
over the Continental Divide in the Glacier Park region from the
east late this afternoon or early evening. High winds from the
northeast will be the primary impact, as gusts of about 40 mph
will be commonplace along the Divide, as well as the Flathead,
Swan, and Whitefish ranges. Boaters on Flathead Lake should expect
gusts of 30 to 40 mph, especially on the east side of the lake.
High winds will persist overnight tonight, spreading south and
east.

Thunderstorms will be another impact. High resolution guidance
depicts storms forming along the cold front this
afternoon/evening. Areal coverage will be much of northwest
Montana from Yaak east to the Divide. Thunderstorm coverage will
spread south overnight into the Mission Valley and along the
Divide including Butte. Storms will be capable of producing small
hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Stratiform rain will
take over behind the front and last into Wednesday for areas along
the Continental Divide. Storm total rainfall will vary, with
parts of Glacier Park seeing one to two inches. The majority of
Flathead and northern Lincoln counties will see about 0.40 to one
inch.

Upper level flow will begin to flatten on Wednesday. A warming and
drying trend will take place going into the weekend. Temperatures
will rebound to seasonable values. On Thursday, most ensemble
members are showing a fast-moving shortwave trough traversing the
northern border. This system will bring some chances for
precipitation and increasing clouds to the Glacier Park region and
areas along the border such as Yaak and Eureka, with lesser
chances as far south as Kalispell.



&&

.AVIATION... Winds will increase today at all terminals as a
disturbance drops into the Northern Rockies from Canada. Gusts of
20 kts will be commonplace. Later this afternoon or early evening,
a strong cold front will bring northeasterly winds to KGPI. Expect
gusts to increase to about 35-45 kts by about 15/0300Z. The wind
shift to northeast will move south throughout the evening and
overnight tonight, eventually reaching KMSO and KBTM by Tuesday
morning. In addition to wind, enough instability with the frontal
passage will fuel thunderstorm development over northwest Montana
including KGPI. Storms will be capable of producing small hail,
heavy rain, and frequent lightning.





&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...West Glacier Region.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for
     Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$