343
FXUS65 KMSO 221935
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1235 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Sunday Night Cold Front: Burst of moderate to heavy snow and
gusty wind over mountain passes. Changeable road conditions.

- Transient Arctic push: Along the Continental Divide Monday
producing heavy mountain snow, cooling temperatures, and wind shift
northeasterly.

- Mid-Week Wintry Mix: Light snow returns Wednesday morning. Snow
levels  rise and precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix later
in   the day for valleys.

- Arctic Watch (Nov 28-29): Monitor forecasts closely if you have
travel plans, as this could bring widespread winter driving
conditions.

Today and tomorrow expect a continued, very mild November regime,
with morning fog or low stratus in many valleys.

Change begins Sunday evening when a robust Polar Cold Front
approaches the region. Southwesterly gusts in the mountains 30 to 40
mph will be common, while valleys experience gusts 20 to 30 mph.

For those wondering where winter has been hiding? Wonder no more but
most may need a little more patience! Temperatures will cool
dramatically Monday post cold front, yet still remain a couple
degrees warmer than normal. Showers will continue in northwest flow
during the morning and could produce a trace accumulation of snow in
valley locations. While travel impacts at pass level may be minor,
none are expected in most valleys. We say most, because a back door
cold front will impact the Continental Divide on Monday. Most of
the impacts will remain east of the divide, however, locations
such as Glacier National Park, the Bob Marshall Wilderness, and
Swan Range will experience heavy snowfall and a wind shift from
the northeast. Snow in the highest mountains in these locations
could be as high as 1 to 2 feet. Skiers may even breathe a small
sigh of relief as they look north in the Flathead Valley.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday a little piece of Pacific moisture will
move over the region bringing widespread light snow. Valley
locations actually have a better chance of receiving a skiff of snow
Wednesday before a warmer Pacific air mass raises snow levels above
most valleys. A couple inches of snow at Lookout and Lolo Passes
Wednesday may present minor impacts to holiday travelers.

We are currently monitoring a potential Arctic system for late
Friday through the weekend. This system has a 45% chance of reaching
Kalispell by Saturday evening with similar chances of reaching
Missoula by Sunday evening. The conditions with a low pressure
digging south and west of our region may even allow for a brief push
into north- central ID Monday morning, 25% chance. As with any
system this far into the future there are timing issues and
questions of how quickly the air mass dries out post frontal. Where
there is some confidence is pass level winter driving impacts
throughout this post holiday weekend travel period. Keep apprised of
future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...A mid to high level cloud deck will be streaming over
the Northern Rockies for the next 24 hours as a weather system
approaches the region. These clouds should minimize the development
of fog and low stratus today, but valleys of north central Idaho and
potentially even the Bitterroot valley could still experience
some fog by Sunday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 11 PM MST Monday
     for West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$