030
FXUS65 KMSO 141915
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1215 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm but active weather continues to mid-week.

- Snow levels slowly descend down to just above pass levels for
  most passes by Wednesday morning.

- Chance of snow accumulation at regional passes remains at or
  below 50% through next week.

A cut off low off the U.S. West Coast will meander into the U.S.
Southwest this weekend. That will leave our region under the zonal
flow (west to east flow) portion of a split flow pattern. With the
polar jet far to the north, that means it will continue to be warm
and breezy with light rain showers. North south aligned valleys,
like the Bitterroot Valley, will have quite a bit of down-slope
flow due to the westerly winds, causing a rain shadow effect. So
they will receive minimal precipitation this weekend.

Models don`t agree well on how that low gets reabsorbed into the
storm track, but generally they are showing the polar jet setting
up south of our region by mid next week. That means snow levels
should be lowering to near pass levels. Current forecasts keep
snow levels just above pass levels though.

As a result, the weather pattern will remain active with frequent
mountain showers and breezy conditions, but there will be little
impact to transportation corridors or populated areas through next
week.

In the long term, about 10 days out or more, the physically based
models and ensemble systems are predicting a significant cool
down. However, the AI based models and ensembles are holding
steady with similar to what we expect early next week. So about
the only thing they agree on is NOT having an unusually warm end
to the month.

&&

.AVIATION...

The region is currently under both an atmospheric river and a
split flow pattern. The split flow is due to the cut-off low off
the U.S. West Coast, which will meander inland this weekend. The
split flow also means that while the atmospheric river is bringing
in a lot of moisture, there isn`t much forcing to cause
precipitation. The end result is a lot of clouds with significant
mountain precipitation, low valley precipitation, and high snow
levels.

This weekend a ridge builds over the region, but it will
consistently have moisture pumped into it from the aforementioned
cut-off low. As a result, we expect stable conditions with
frequent low to mid-level ceilings and periods of fog and mist
through the weekend. The conditions will not be good for 1/4 mile
visibility or 200 ft ceilings, so major area terminals like KMSO
and KGPI are expected to remain above airfield minimums, though
some terminals like KSMN and KHRF with with more restrictive
minimums may see more impacts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$