137
FXUS65 KMSO 021917
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1217 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Mild and quiet weather expected through Wednesday, though
   morning low clouds or valley fog is possible.

-  Two weak systems bring showers Thursday and Friday with light
   dusting of snow above 5,000 feet, and westerly breezes.

-  Mild and dry conditions return for the weekend, with morning
   fog remaining possible.

High pressure building over the region will lead to stagnant
conditions and trapped surface moisture, creating a favorable
setup for locally dense valley fog tonight into Tuesday morning,
and again on Wednesday morning. Motorists should exercise caution,
as visibility will vary significantly over short distances on
local roadways. Fog will generally dissipate by each afternoon,
allowing daytime temperatures to warm near or slightly above
seasonal averages, peaking in the 40s to low 50s.

A pair of weak weather systems will pass through the region on
Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to active weather but
minimal impacts. Light showers will primarily be focused across
northwest Montana, though overall precipitation amounts will
remain limited. Snow levels will hover near 5,000 feet. In
addition to the showers, expect an uptick in afternoon breezes,
particularly on Friday.

High pressure returns this weekend, bringing a stretch of mostly
dry conditions, mild afternoons, and localized morning valley fog.
By Sunday and Monday, remnant moisture from an atmospheric river
impacting the Pacific Northwest coast will spill inland, bringing
renewed chances for light showers to northwest Montana. Looking
further ahead to Nov 11-14 suggests a broader pattern shift.
Atmospheric rivers initially aimed at the Pacific Northwest coast
are forecast to sag southward and push inland. This transition
would increase the likelihood of more widespread precipitation
across our region, including the potential for accumulating
mountain snowfall. Confidence in this pattern setup is low to
moderate, but it is certainly something we will keep an eye on.


&&

.AVIATION... Mostly VFR weather conditions will prevail this
afternoon with light terrain-driven winds at the surface and some
lower broken clouds hugging terrain creating localized
obscurations especially near the Continental Divide. Localized
morning fog or low stratus is very likely to develop overnight
into Tuesday morning. Any low ceilings or fog is anticipated to
lift or burn off by mid- day. Areas of wildfire smoke from
prescribed burning may enhance the obscurations due to smoke and
fog in the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$