931
FXUS65 KMSO 152012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Clouds should diminish on Thursday allowing for near seasonal
  temperatures

- Scattered showers return on Friday

- Cold front expected on Sunday causing cool and showery
  conditions through Monday


The Northern Rockies continue to be stuck under a stagnant airmass
as a broad trough of low pressure remains over the western United
States. The lack of flow and cool air has allowed for widespread
fog and stratus over the Northern Rockies. This cloud cover is
expected to last throughout the night into Thursday morning.

The low pressure system is expected to traverse across central
Wyoming into eastern Montana on Thursday. This track is farther to
the east then previously forecasted, so precipitation associated
with the low will be limited to the Continental Divide across
southwest Montana. The exiting low will help increase the flow
aloft which should help dissipate this stratus deck allow
temperatures to warm to more seasonal readings by Thursday
afternoon.

A weak disturbance is expected to quickly clip the Northern
Rockies from the northwest on Friday. This disturbance will bring
gusty westerly winds along with scattered to numerous showers
across the Northern Rockies, especially northwest Montana.
Snowlevels appears to be hovering around 4000 to 5000 feet on
Friday afternoon. Elevations above 4000 feet around Glacier
National Park should anticipated 1 to 3 inches of new snow
accumulation by Friday evening.

A transitory ridge of high pressure slides over the region on
Saturday causing a momentary dry period. Then a cold front is
expected to push across the Northern Rockies on Sunday. Ahead of
the front the Camas Prairie and Riggins region could experience
gusty southerly winds late Saturday night. The front is
anticipated to bring widespread precipitation, gusty westerly
winds and cooler temperatures. These cool and showery conditions
persist into Monday.



&&

.AVIATION...Widespread low cloud cover over valley locations has
been very stubborn today, but slowly lifting, or getting scoured
out by north winds through the afternoon from northwest to
southeast in far northwestern Montana. There is a good chance
that low stratus conditions persist through the rest of the day
and into tomorrow especially from KGPI and southward. Slight
chance for rain or snow showers along the Continental Divide
through this evening. Rain/snow shower chances for KBTM could last
as late as 16/1200z. Increasing clearing and VFR weather
conditions for most through Thursday afternoon before high clouds
start to move in from the west by the evening. North- northwest
ridgetop winds 10-15 knots with light winds anticipated at the
surface through the forecast period.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$