071
FXUS65 KMSO 251842
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1242 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms today, gusty outflow
  wind potential.

- Isolated/scattered thunderstorm pattern Thursday through
  Saturday.

- Warm up expected to start June 30, temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal.


Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a broad trough of low pressure
will transport Pacific moisture into the Northern Rockies for the
remainder of the week. Despite the moisture feed, forcing for
ascent will be limited, so shower activity will be scattered with
chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The primary threat from these
storms will be gusty, erratic outflow winds capable of producing
gusts to about 40 mph. Background winds will strengthen in the
afternoons through Friday under a tightening north-south pressure
gradient aloft, bringing widespread gusts of about 15-25 mph.

While the chance of severe thunderstorms remains low (less than
5%), Thursday presents the highest potential for a strong storm or
two over the next several days. High resolution models are
showing convection starting in the early morning hours over north-
central Idaho and west-central Montana. Additional showers and
storms are expected Thursday afternoon, mainly south of Interstate
90.

Flow aloft turns westerly by Friday. Shower activity will decline,
while afternoon winds remain gusty. High pressure will build over
the Northern Rockies on Saturday to Sunday. High temperatures will
accompany the ridge on Monday, so expect daytime highs to hit
triple digits for the lower Salmon and Clearwater valleys and 90s
in the lower valleys of western Montana.



&&

.AVIATION... Visible satellite imagery this afternoon is showing
Pacific moisture under southwesterly flow aloft keeping midlevel
clouds over the Northern Rockies. Some instability will be capable
of fueling some afternoon thunderstorms today. The primary threat
from today`s storms will be gusty, erratic outflow winds to about
40 kts.  Background winds will generally gust between 15 and 25 knots,
though stronger gusts exceeding 35 knots may accompany heavier
showers and any thunderstorms that develop. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to persist overnight tonight into the morning hours
for north-central Idaho and west-central Montana (KMSO, KHRF).
Thunderstorm activity on Thursday will expand to KBTM and KSMN by
Thursday afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$