586
FXUS66 KMTR 142350
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
450 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cool and calm conditions prevail. Warm temperatures inland, but
still near seasonal normals. Slight warming trend inland mid next
week. Dry conditions persist across high terrain, leading to
elevated grass fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Quiet conditions persist as a trough pattern set up off the West
Coast provides a deep onshore flow regime. This will keep temps
around seasonal normals - slightly below normal along the coast.
Otherwise, dry conditions continue at higher elevations
(generally above about 2,000 feet) where humidity recovery is poor
and grasses are very dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Out persistent trough pattern eventually gets kicked out by a
progressive shortwave trough moving into the West Coast. Not much
worth noting regarding our weather in this case besides the
potential for some drizzle along coastal areas early next week.
Behind the shortwave, we do see a subtle warm up on tap through
Wednesday, but again nothing worth getting bent out of shape for.
We`ll basically see high temps around normal or a few degrees
above. The main hazard over the next week will be dry conditions
inland leading to elevated grass fire danger, especially above
2,000 feet where humidity recovery is poor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions with moderate onshore winds will continue for the
majority of terminals through the evening. Early Sunday morning,
there is a decent chance that IFR/MVFR stratus will return. Since
the skies are mostly clear from the coast to well offshore, the
confidence that stratus will redevelop and impact the more
vulnerable terminals is only moderate. Where it does form, the
duration should be limited to around 6 hours or so before
confidently clearing later Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate onshore winds will continue through the
early evening before easing overnight. Model guidance is
indicating the chance of MVFR ceilings early Sunday morning is
similar to a coin-flip at SFO. While GFSLAMP and HREF are both
indicating around a 50-55% for MVFR ceilings at SFO, HREF shows
closer to 75% at OAK, hence the SCT015 at SFO and BKN015 at OAK in
the 00Z TAFs. If ceilings do develop, there`s high confidence
that VFR conditions will return later Sunday morning while
moderate onshore winds return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon. MRY and SNS
have a good chance for IFR ceilings to develop in the early
morning. Since the marine layer is more compressed at the
southern terminals, there is a small chance for visibility impacts
as well, particularly at MRY. Ceilings will start to clear late
morning with high confidence in VFR conditions returning by
midday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts,  and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through at least  Wednesday.
Localized gale force gusts are likely near the coastal  jet
regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions prevail through the weekend.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures
and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the
marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by
the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses,
drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given the
onshore flow, winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for inland
valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values
barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages,
and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...RGass

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