045
FXUS66 KMTR 150550
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1050 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

 - Gradual warming and drying trend Saturday and into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)

The region will remain on the eastern periphery of upper-level
troughing well off the West Coast Saturday. Sensible weather wise,
this`ll bring another Fogust day with temperatures well below
normal, clouds in the evenings/mornings with a chance for drizzle,
and onshore flow. Gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected through
gaps/passes and down the Salinas Valley. While the marine layer
remains deep, it doesn`t look healthy on satellite with patchwork
stratus across the region. Diurnal winds will keep smoke from the
Timber Fire out to sea with downsloping (easterly) winds in the
morning and onshore (northwesterly) winds in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Upper-level ridging will nose in from the east on Sunday and
ultimately anchor itself across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.
This will result in a gradual warming and drying trend into next
week. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals away from
and above the marine layer influence at the coast. As the marine
layer compresses with subsidence aloft, its footprint will become
smaller and conditions above it will become drier. Poor afternoon
daytime relative humidity of 20-30% is expected for the higher
terrain with locally lower values of 10-20% across the Central
Coast. Recovery will remain moderate through the weekend, but by
Monday little-to-none is expected with that trend continuing through
Friday. This will likely lead to seasonably elevated conditions with
rapid rates of spread on any wind-and-terrain aligned starts in
receptive vegetation. The timeframe of most concern will be with the
diurnal sea breeze in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding across the region and will impact all
the terminals through the night into the later part of Saturday
morning, when inland stratus progressively mixes out leaving coastal
regions socked in through the daytime. Moderate and gusty onshore
winds will develop Saturday afternoon and evening. Stratus returns
to the region Saturday night with lower ceilings expected as a
thermal ridge begins to compress the marine layer.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR stratus persists through the night, with
clearing expected sometime during the late morning or early
afternoon hours on Saturday. Breezy west-northwest winds will resume
Saturday afternoon, with stratus returning in the evening to
overnight hours. Confidence in the stratus clearing and development
times is low as high-resoluton models suggest that the edge of the
stratus deck may develop right over the terminal, and lingering
stratus on the western side of the San Bruno Gap may lead to
pulses of stratus ceilings during an otherwise VFR period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR ceilings and light winds continue
through the night and into the late hours of Saturday morning.
Moderate confidence that MRY remains socked in through the day, with
the most likely time for scattering between 20-00Z. Moderate
northwest winds will develop Saturday afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return to SNS sometime Saturday evening with low confidence in
the exact timing.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 955 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Gentle to moderate northwest winds persist through the early part
of next week. Seas will continue to subside and become moderate in
response. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds
approaches the coast tonight into Sunday. Winds increase to a
fresh to strong breeze in the early and middle parts of next week,
causing seas to build up to 9 feet.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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