371
FXUS66 KMTR 141738
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
938 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Active weather pattern continues through next week with
   multiple chances for rain.

 - Hazardous beach conditions persist through Friday.

 - Cooler temperatures return late weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

The short term forecast is in good shape with the only minor
change being to update PoPs for ongoing trends. An upper low,
currently churning just offshore, will continue to send ribbons of
moist ascent across the area. This will encourage showers through
at least late afternoon. Instability is greatest offshore and at
this time, I`m anticipating largely showers, though a rumble of
thunder cannot be completely ruled out. PoPs range from near 10%
across the North Bay to around 40% across the Central Coast.
Additional rainfall amounts through this afternoon should peak near
around 0.10" across the higher terrain of the Santa Lucia and
Diablo Ranges, with largely up to 0.05" elsewhere across the
Central Coast and East Bay. The afternoon forecast update will
feature a closer examination of the active weather pattern this
weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 204 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
(Today and tonight)

Rain has largely stopped across the Bay Area with only a few
scattered showers remaining over the Central Coast and South Bay.
The North Bay Mountains, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Santa Lucia Range
saw the highest precipitation totals between 4"-6". In the Santa
Lucia Range, the Mining Ridge site (MNRC1) was our big winner and
saw a total of 6.5" over the last 24 hours. Elsewhere, the lower
elevations of the North Bay, East Bay, and San Francisco Peninsula
saw 1-2.5", the South Bay saw 1-2", and the Central Coast saw
between 0.5-2". A look at the California Nevada River Forecast
Center (CNRFC) shows that nearly every site in the Bay Area and
Monterey/San Benito is running anywhere from 100% to over 200% of
normal for the water year so far. A promising start to our water
year so far!

The upper level low to our northwest is expected to weaken,
gradually move southward, and become a cut-off low offshore of
Southern California by later today. This will continue to bring
light rain across the region with totals ranging from a few
hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch. There is a low
(5%) chance of thunderstorms across the Central Coast and South Bay
late this morning and afternoon. NAM guidance shows at least a few
hundred J/kg of most unstable CAPE across the South Bay and Central
Coast today but the 700-500 mb lapse rates (the change in
temperature over the 700 mb to 500 mb layer) don`t look that
impressive. Lapse rates are forecast to be in the 6-7 C/km range
which suggests a more stable to slightly conditionally unstable
environment. Morning low temperatures are feeling a bit chillier
with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s expected today. Temperatures
across the higher elevations of the Central Coast will be even
cooler, with lows potentially dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s. The combination of light rain and cooler mornings may result in
a chillier than normal early morning commute so make sure to dress
adequately. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s across
the region on Friday with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to
50s expected across the highest mountain peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 204 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

Rainy weather continues on Saturday as the cut-off low off of
southern California moves inland. This will bring a surge of into
Southern California which will gradually move northward into the
Central Coast and result in an additional 0.5-1.5" of rain. While
the bulk of the rain on Saturday will be over the Central Coast,
portions of the South Bay and Santa Cruz County will see up to 0.5"
while the rest of the Bay Area sees between a few hundredths to
0.25" of rain. This cut-off low will be ejected eastward by an
incoming deep, upper level trough Sunday into Monday. This system
will bring widespread rain to the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday
into Monday. The North Bay looks to see between 0.5-1.5", the Santa
Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range will see between 0.5-1.0", and
the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast will generally see around
0.5-0.75". Gustier winds return Sunday into Monday but do not look
to be as widespread as they were earlier this week. We briefly
manage to dry out Monday night through Wednesday morning before
another potential system rolls through mid to late next week.

While rain is the eyecatcher of the forecast, temperatures will
noticeably cool (both highs and lows) starting Sunday. Saturday will
be the warmest day through the remainder of the long term forecast
with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the Bay Area and upper 50s
to low 60s for the Central Coast. As our upcoming Sunday to Monday
system brings widespread rain, it will also bring in a much cooler
airmass. Guidance shows 850 mb temperatures around 8-9C on Saturday
dropping to 5-6C by Sunday and 3-4C by Monday/Tuesday. This will
keep our high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for much of the
next week. Morning low temperatures will drop into the low to mid
40s across the lower elevations and into the mid to upper 30s across
the higher elevations. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are currently
the coldest of the forecast period so anyone outside early in the
morning will want to  bundle up. With the combination of cooler
temperatures and a potential system mid to late next week, the NBM
is highlighting a low potential for snow on the highest peaks of the
Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges next week. Hopefully you aren`t tired
of cooler and wetter weather already as the CPC indicates below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation is likely to
continue through at least early December. Remember to stay up to
date on the forecast as our next few systems arrive this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

Mixed skies through today as the atmosphere remains mixed behind
the cold front. Slight chance of isolated showers across the Bay
Area this afternoon, moderate-high confidence in timing but low
confidence in coverage. Conditions clear into this evening with
clouds increasing into Saturday morning and -SHRA returning from
the Bay Area southward through much of the rest of the day.

Vicinity of SFO...Weak southerly winds this morning expected to
turn to NW by the afternoon. Not anticipating southerly winds to
get much stronger than they are now. Slight chance of NE winds
early this afternoon before becoming NW, but again, shouldn`t be
greater than 5-8 kts. Anticipating it to be mostly clear during
the overnight hours. However, clouds gradually increase Saturday
morning with -SHRA beginning by mid-morning and lasting into the
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Light, isolated showers invof terminals
this morning will give way to drier conditions this afternoon.
Winds remain mostly light, onshore during the afternoon, becoming
more E/SE by early Saturday morning. -SHRA anticipated to begin
before sunrise and last through much of the period Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 910 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

Buoys are reporting a light southerly breeze with very high
westerly swell up to 15 feet/15 seconds. The swell will gradually
subside through the day with more favorable conditions through the
weekend. A fresh to strong northerly breeze arrives Monday,
building rough seas across the inner waters and very rough seas in
the outer waters. Conditions will improve through midweek.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 124 AM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Friday evening.
Long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for
sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet
are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and
jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in
the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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