629
FXUS66 KMTR 172357
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
457 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Quiet weather continues with a slight warmup today and tomorrow,
with temperatures gradually falling back to near normal or slightly
below normal for the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

Wall to wall sunshine blankets the Bay Area and Central Coast this
afternoon as stratus lurks well offshore. Lack of clouds and
increased insolation has led to warmer temperatures this
afternoon. Latest 24 hour trend shows many locations running about
3 to 6 degrees warmer, but far interior locations are as much as
10 degrees warmer than Monday. If you have a chance to spend
sometime outside today you`ll be treated to pleasant June weather.

Tonight and Wednesday - the marine layer waiting in the wings
will move inland tonight bringing low clouds and some patchy fog.
Despite the return of the marine layer upper elevations will once
again be mild and dry. Marine layer clouds will erode/roll back to
the coast early Wednesday giving way to sunny skies once again.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week at far interior
locations soar well into the 90s with a few spots nearing 100.
Despite the warm up HeatRisk concerns are minimal thanks to better
cooling at night. Closer to the coast will be mild, but continued
onshore flow will keep temperatures in check.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 130 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

The temperature roller coaster continues in the Long Term. Last
weekend was cooler and then we saw warming through mid-week. The
warmup through mid-week will quickly come to an end by Thursday
and a notable cooling trend kicks in. A broad upper level trough
will move over CA by Thursday. The trough will help to deepen the
marine layer, bring 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures down.
Additional cooling is expected on Friday with highs 5 to 15
degrees below seasonal average. That translates to highs in the
upper 50s to near 70 at the coast and upper 60s to lower 80s
inland. In addition to the cooler temperatures, the passing trough
will ramp up the N-S pressure gradient. As such, cold advection
and increasing pressure gradient will lead to breezy to gusty
conditions around the region Thursday and Friday. That means
northwesterly gusts 30-40 mph with isolated 50 mph along the
coast, inland gaps/passes, inland valleys, and higher peaks. For
now will keep the marine layer in place, but sometimes when the
N-S gets this strong the marine layer gets shredded. General
upper level troughiness will persist into the weekend as the
associated parent upper level low continues to spin near the
PacNW/N Rockies.

Winds slowly ease and temperatures begin to rebound by early next
week as high pressure begins to regain control over the EPac.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025


Widespread VFR lasts into the evening. Breezy to gusty winds reduce
into the evening, becoming light to moderate through the night and
much of Wednesday morning. IFR CIGs fill at HAF and at the Monterey
Bay terminals into the night with OAK seeing CIGs in the late night.
Cloud cover begins to erode into the mid morning but widespread VFR
doesn`t return until the late morning and early afternoon. Winds
increase in the late morning and become breezy to gusty for
Wednesday afternoon and beyond the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty winds last into
the early night before gusts cut off and winds reduce. Expect some
spotty cloud cover into the early morning as winds continue to
weaken. Gusty west winds return into Wednesday afternoon, and only
look to reduce slightly into Wednesday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night. Winds look to
reduce into the mid evening but stay moderate. IFR CIGS arrive to
MRY into the night and reach SNS into the late night. These CIGs
look to erode in the mid to late morning, leading to VFR as moderate
northwest winds build.


&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 456 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The hazardous conditions continue with gusty northwesterly winds
and moderate to rough seas continue across most of the coastal
waters. Winds will continue to strengthen and significant wave
heights will build starting mid week, remaining elevated through
early next week. Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal jet
areas south of Point Reyes and Point Sur as well as the northern
outer waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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