556
FXUS66 KMTR 072118
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely
near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging
redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as
they did the last few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Low stratus clouds continue to linger along the coastline with some
sunshine occasionally breaking through this afternoon. Clear skies
farther inland have allowed temperatures to climb into the 70s and
80s, with some higher elevations to the east and south in the 90s
with breezy west/southwest surface winds. An upper level ridge axis
will shift east across our area for the remainder of today and
tonight while an upper trough deepens over the open water to our
west. The upper trough will produce increasing mid/high clouds
tomorrow afternoon helping to cool temperatures a few degrees
inland, while low stratus clouds persist keeping temperatures along
the coast in the 60s. The slow moving upper trough will result in
similar conditions on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The aforementioned slow moving upper trough eventually shifts east
by early Monday morning, while a cutoff low splits off from the
southern portion of the trough over the southeast Pacific. There`s
some uncertainty in the synoptic longwave pattern across our area,
depending on how the cutoff low evolves over the weekend. The
warming trend for the middle of next week and beyond remains in the
forecast but the max temperatures have trended slightly lower. The
warmer temperatures peak on Wednesday, with a gradual cooling trend
for late in the week as the cutoff low begins to move onshore across
SOCAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The coastal stratus is mixing out and most terminals have
returned to VFR conditions. With high pressure aloft, the North
Bay terminals have been slight visibility reductions in haze. A
500 mb ridge axis will gradually push through this evening before
troughing begins to move in Saturday. This will allow the marine
layer to compress slightly overnight and should bring ceilings
lower. Otherwise moderate onshore winds will remain in place
before drainage flow sets up in the valleys tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Winds are currently from the NNE, but will soon
shift to the standard 280 this afternoon. SFO is currently VFR,
with model guidance suggesting a push of stratus through the
Golden Gate this afternoon. This will likely bring MVFR CIGs to
OAK by the late afternoon/early evening, but due to the wind
direction and terrain shelter, SFO has a better chance of staying
VFR with low clouds remaining to the N and E. SFO won`t dodge the
low clouds forever though as a deepening marine layer will very
likely bring MVFR conditions to the terminal Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...The bridge approach is likely to stay clear
this evening, even if SFO and OAK develop ceilings.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Morning ceilings are starting to clear
and there is a 6 or 7 hour window of VFR conditions expected
before they return. With a compressing marine layer, MRY has about
a 50% chance of seeing LIFR conditions in the morning, with a 40%
chance at SNS. There is also a decent chance for morning mist,
and subsequent TAF updates may get more aggressive dropping the
visibility. Otherwise SNS has been reporting some haze this
morning, and that is expected to continue under high pressure.
Expected moderate W-NW winds through the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1041 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Areas of fog and drizzle will cause reduced visibility through
the morning across Monterey Bay and along the Big Sur Coast.
Winds and seas will remain hazardous for areas along and north of
the Greater Farallones through Friday afternoon where Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to subside below 20 knots and 10 feet, respectively. This
will be relatively short lived as 20-25 knot winds increase
during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Seas will respond later
Sunday morning and into the afternoon, likely necessitating
additional marine headlines.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea