462
FXUS66 KMTR 201929
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1129 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Beneficial type rain continues through Thursday.

 - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

 - Increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through
   Thursday afternoon through Monday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Rain coming to an end this morning across the region. The cold
front and associated surface low are situated just off the Bay
Area and Central Coast, and will continue to move southward
through today. Skies will be slow to clear for southern areas
today, but tomorrow looks great. Some overnight rain totals: up
to a half inch in the Santa Lucia and Santa Cruz Mtns, generally
around 0.25" elsewhere, and lower amounts around a tenth of an
inch in the North Bay.

Behringer

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 238 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025
(Today and tonight)

Active weather overnight, but thankfully not overly impactful. A
digging upper level trough fueled by a phased upper level jet did
lead to cyclogenesis. The resulting surface low is pretty weak
with a surface low currently analyzed just west of the Golden
Gate at 1013 mb. The associated frontal structure is finally
making its way inland. Earlier in the night a few scattered
showers were traversing portions of the Bay Area, but since then
activity has increased in coverage and intensity with the fropa.
Rainfall amounts over the last six hours has generally been a few
hundredths to a few tenths. Jackpot locations include the Marin
Headland with three tenths. Current radar imagery shows the bulk
of the precip is already exiting the Sonoma Co and now heading SE
toward the Central Coast. As such, still expecting morning impacts
to the commute, especially for super commuters. There have been
only a report or two of minor water issues on roadways overnight,
but commuters should still be aware of wet roadways. It`s wet, but
thankfully not windy like the last system. A few wind gusts up to
20 mph have been observed.

So, what`s the rest of the day look like? The steadier rain will
continue its track S and E with AM impacts. There will be a
brief pause/break in precip behind the front (like the Sonoma
Co), but do expect a few scattered showers this afternoon with the
upper trough moving overhead. Thereafter, a gradually clearing
and drying trend will develop. Temps today will be seasonably
cool.

Depending upon the amount of clearing tonight with decreasing
winds, fog could be an issue over the inland valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 257 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)

Mellow extended forecast thanks building high pressure behind the
departing upper level trough/low. A warming and drying trend will
kick off Friday and then continue into next week. Temperatures
will be close to or slightly above seasonal average. Ensemble
guidance keeps the middle of next week on the dry side, which is
good news given the amount of holiday travel expected. Looking
farther down the road, ensembles show some spread with precip
chances returning around the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Lingering showers and low clouds begin to exit into the afternoon
and evening, while mid-level clouds prevail through much of the day.
Winds become moderate into the afternoon but are expected to become
light into the evening and early night. Cloud cover erodes
overnight, with some pockets of fog possible in the more interior
valleys. Cloud cover fails to reform into Friday with light to
moderate winds expected through that afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Lower clouds and lingering showers are eroding.
Expect mid-level clouds to last through the evening and exit into
the night. Moderate northwest winds build into the afternoon with
gusts peaking around 21 kts. Gusts cut off and winds reduce into the
evening. Winds turn north-northeast in the late night through Friday
morning, but turn northwest again that afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds are lifting, but scattered mid-
level clouds linger through the day. Expect light shower chances to
linger into the evening, but chances look to exit the region into
the night. Moderate to breezy winds reduce in the evening, and
become light as cloud cover erodes into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 844 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Expect hazardous marine conditions through the weekend as winds
and swells build. A weak storm system has arrived, bringing light
rain and moderate to strong winds with strong to near gale force
gusts. Gale force gusts are possible as frontal passage occurs
but, given the speed of the cold front, they are expected to be
short lived with winds diminishing quickly. Winds diminish by
early Friday with moderate northerly winds expected into next
week. Seas build to 10 to 15 feet Thursday and remain elevated
into early next week. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the
arrival of two distinct rounds of long period northwesterly swell.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will
result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents.
Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can
unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal,
including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more
frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and
piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM PST this afternoon through
     Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea