


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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656 FXUS66 KMTR 151945 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1245 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Warming and drying trend through Saturday - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches by Saturday - Cooler conditions return Sunday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Another cool day is expected across the region with lingering cloud cover. Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the region with isolated pockets nearing 70 degrees F. The mid/upper level low is now located over Nevada and will continue a east-northeastward track over the next 24 hours or so. In wake of the exiting trough, high pressure will nose in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in a gradual warming trend the next few days and weak offshore winds, mainly in the higher elevations beginning tonight. With offshore winds aloft, only expecting FEW/SCT clouds tonight and may become BKN by late evening in areas that typically see overnight stratus. Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday look to bottom out in the 40s across the interior and lower 50s around the San Francisco Bayshore and coastal areas. The highest peaks across the region very well may drop into the upper 30s, especially across the Central Coast where the offshore winds are expected to be weaker. Temperatures on Thursday look to warm into the the upper 60s near the coast to lower 70s inland with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Again, these temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) The warming and drying trend will continue through Friday as temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages as weak offshore flow persists. By Saturday, forecast to be the warmest day of the week, we are expecting temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. By Sunday, what appears to be a dry frontal boundary will move across the region cooling temperatures slightly. Rain chances have been removed from the forecast as the a mid/upper level low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves inland over the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Zonal flow is forecast across the Bay Area and Central Coast through the remainder of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Lingering low level moisture leading to a late clearing of a rather solid cloud deck across the region. Still anticipating conditions to improve region-wide thru this morning. VFR this aft with SCT fair weather Cu. Skies mostly clear tonight aside from some patchy stratus around the Bay Area. Vicinity of SFO...Lingering cloud deck persists through at least the 18Z hour, scattering out by midday. VFR thru the rest of the aft with FEW/SCT fair weather Cu. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy SCT/BKN clouds will mix out to VFR this afternoon and remain mostly clear overnight. Isolated pockets of MVFR cigs overnight along the southern coastline of the bay. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 932 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Weather conditions improve today through late week as the low pressure systems departs. Light winds persist across the waters today, increasing to a fresh breeze Thursday afternoon. A longer period northwesterly swell will arrive over the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea