656
FXUS66 KMTR 151945
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1245 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Saturday

 - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk
   of sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches by
   Saturday

 - Cooler conditions return Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Another cool day is expected across the region with lingering cloud
cover. Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s
across much of the region with isolated pockets nearing 70 degrees F.
The mid/upper level low is now located over Nevada and will continue
a east-northeastward track over the next 24 hours or so. In wake of
the exiting trough, high pressure will nose in from the eastern
Pacific. This will result in a gradual warming trend the next few
days and weak offshore winds, mainly in the higher elevations
beginning tonight.

With offshore winds aloft, only expecting FEW/SCT clouds tonight and
may become BKN by late evening in areas that typically see overnight
stratus. Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday look to bottom
out in the 40s across the interior and lower 50s around the San
Francisco Bayshore and coastal areas. The highest peaks across the
region very well may drop into the upper 30s, especially across the
Central Coast where the offshore winds are expected to be weaker.

Temperatures on Thursday look to warm into the the upper 60s near
the coast to lower 70s inland with mostly sunny skies by the
afternoon. Again, these temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees
below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The warming and drying trend will continue through Friday as
temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages as weak offshore flow
persists. By Saturday, forecast to be the warmest day of the week,
we are expecting temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

By Sunday, what appears to be a dry frontal boundary will move
across the region cooling temperatures slightly. Rain chances have
been removed from the forecast as the a mid/upper level low drops
out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves inland over the Pacific
Northwest on Monday. Zonal flow is forecast across the Bay Area and
Central Coast through the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Lingering low level moisture leading to a late clearing of a
rather solid cloud deck across the region. Still anticipating
conditions to improve region-wide thru this morning. VFR this aft
with SCT fair weather Cu. Skies mostly clear tonight aside from
some patchy stratus around the Bay Area.

Vicinity of SFO...Lingering cloud deck persists through at least
the 18Z hour, scattering out by midday. VFR thru the rest of the
aft with FEW/SCT fair weather Cu.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy SCT/BKN clouds will mix out to VFR
this afternoon and remain mostly clear overnight. Isolated pockets
of MVFR cigs overnight along the southern coastline of the bay.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 932 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Weather conditions improve today through late week as the low
pressure systems departs. Light winds persist across the waters
today, increasing to a fresh breeze Thursday afternoon. A longer
period northwesterly swell will arrive over the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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