812
FXUS66 KMTR 111130
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
330 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions through today

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday

 - Moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for
   thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
(Today and tonight)

The forecast is on track this morning, as high level clouds stream in
from a storm system churning over the Pacific. This has kept
temperatures varied, but all be it, warmer than normal. Depending on
where you`re at, temperatures vary from the upper 40s to upper 50s
for interior valleys and folks along the coast and the low 60s to
low 70s for those on the mountains. This will help lead to another
warm and dry day; however, cloud cover and the upper level ridge
over southern California flattening, should limit high temperature
growth compared to what we`ve seen the last few days. Highs for
Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to low 80 for interior valleys
and higher terrain, while coastal communities peak in the mid 60s to
low 70s.

The pattern continues to shift to zonal flow late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, setting us up for a midweek pattern change and
unsettled weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

A strong upper low will advanced towards the West Coast Wednesday
into Thursday with the trough digging towards the PacNW and northern
California. This will bring unsettled weather to the Bay Area and
portions of the Central Coast, primarily increasing southerly winds
and rain. There are some models that hint a slight chance for
thunderstorms offshore and perhaps over the North Bay counties late
Wednesday evening and into the early overnight hours. Chances for
thunder spread south early Thursday morning and into the afternoon
hours. We will have decent shear and moisture, but CAPE is low
or low. This should keep any thunderstorm development well below
severe criteria with the main concerns being gusty winds, heavy rain,
and flashes of lightning. Chances for thunder generally sit at 20%
or less with this forecast package update. When it comes to rainfall
totals, the forecast generally remains on track. From 4 AM Wednesday
through 4 AM Friday, the regions coastal ranges can expect the see 2-
3" of rainfall, 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region
and the North Bay, 1-1.25" in the City of San Francisco, and
generally less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the
Monterey Bay region. There is the potential for less rainfall within
the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less
rainfall).

Moving on to the other hazard, wind. Models and ensemble guidance
continue to depict southerly winds ramping up late Wednesday night
through Thursday morning before tapering. Look for wind gusts to
range from 35 to 45 mph for interior valley locations, with stronger
gusts up to 45 to 55 mph along the coast and at the higher
elevations. Stronger gusts, potentially in excess of 60 mph, are
possible through favored gaps and passes.

Once the main front moves through, we`ll be left with post-frontal
showers Thursday into Friday. A drying trend is expected on
Saturday, though this should be brief as ensembles favor a trough
pattern to return after that.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 912 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Ample high level clouds with light winds terminals through most of
tonight. KHAF will have some reduced vis into MVFR category at
times. The tail end of the tafs will some some stratus moving in
with MVFR cigs developing.

Vicinity of SFO...Light winds. VFR with cigs develop by Wednesday AM.

SFO Bridge Approach...VFR...cigs north of approach early Wednesday
AM.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently, but still monitoring cigs
off the coast. Will bring some IFR cigs to SNS around 10Z. Cigs
retreat mid morning and then return late Tuesday afternoon. Low
confidence, especially cigs for KSNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

High pressure over the coastal waters and bays will weaken and
move eastward on Wednesday. A low pressure system and cold front
will develop and strengthen over the offshore waters and reach
northern California late Wednesday night and Thursday. The strong
cold front will produce gales, including possibly storm force
gusts over the northern and inner coastal waters, while passing
eastward across the coastal waters and bays late Wednesday and
early Thursday. Heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms
will accompany the cold front. Strong winds combined with a
building NW swell will generate hazardous seas across the waters.
Winds will decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to
build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Mry Bay.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Canepa

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