328
FXUS66 KMTR 160440
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
940 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Continued quiet conditions through early week. Slight warming
slated for the middle of the week with cooler temps and potential
offshore wind by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

As the sun sets we prepare for another night of stratus developing
in the marine layer. Similar to last night, we don`t have a big
bank of clouds along the coast, but onshore winds and the mostly
clear marine layer persist. This means clouds will have to form,
rather than advect in. It`s difficult to predict exactly what will
happen, but areas that develop clouds will see them arrive later
than normal and they should clear earlier in the morning for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Gorgeous couple of days with temps right around or slightly below
seasonal averages. A transient shortwave trough will act to cool
temps a couple of degrees to start the work week. Other than that,
no major changes or impacts in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Warming trend into Wednesday looks to bring temps around or a few
degrees above seasonal averages as high pressure builds over Baja
ridging up into the PNW. Wednesday does look to be the peak of the
warming before a deeper and potentially more impactful trough
moves in by the end of the week. Still evaluating specifics, but
there appears to be at least a slight risk of offshore wind in the
North Bay by next weekend. With grasses very dry and larger fuels
not far behind, this certainly looks like a window for more
elevated fire weather concerns. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with stratus along
the Tomales Bay, San Francisco Peninsula Coast, and Monterey Bay.
Generally a persistence forecast with MVFR/IFR ceilings returning to
coastal and bayside terminals. Moderate and gusty onshore winds are
expected tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Westerly winds
will prevail through the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots to be
expected. There`s a 60% probability for sub-VFR ceilings to impact
the terminal tonight with most guidance showing low-end MVFR, but
the risk for IFR is there as well. High confidence in VFR prevailing
by late-morning alongside strong and gusty westerly winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in SNS
deteriorating to IFR tonight with VFR and westerly winds prevailing
by late-morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 844 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Thursday. Gale force
gusts are expected near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and
Point Sur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 556 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No real notable changes to the ongoing forecast fire weather wise.
Still highlighting elevated fire weather conditions across the
interior Central Coast. While not in our forecast area, a decent
veg fire developed and spread quickly to over 1k acres in SLO.
This could have easily happened in San Benito or Monterey
counties.

Observations over the last 24 hour and predicted weather continue
to show marine layer influence keeping fire weather conditions in
check for lower elevations and coastal areas. However, about
roughly 2k feet and farther inland conditions remain mild and dry
both day and night. On top of that is onshore flow leading to
breezy conditions each afternoon. Some of the winds are being
enhanced by topography leading to gustier flow in the valleys,
gaps, passes with 20-35 mph gusts.

Simply put, if you`re recreating outdoors, be one less spark in
these elevated fire weather conditions.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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