343
FXUS66 KMTR 160519
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
919 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Light rain spreading across the region from south to north
   today. Highest totals from Monterey Bay southward, less than an
   inch further north.

 - Next system on track for late Sunday with a strong cold front
   and a period of moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Monday
   morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday morning.

 - Drier Tuesday with chilly temperatures through the rest of the
   week. Next rain chance Thursday, details uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

No update to the forecast this evening as we watch the backside of
the exiting system to our south and east continue to produce
beneficial rainfall across the Central Coast. The rain shield
began to move across the Bay Area over the past couple of hours
and will eventually shift into the North Bay. The coldest cloud
tops have spread over much of our area, so there may be pockets of
moderate rainfall at times, however light rain is expected for
most locations. The next round of rain expected late Sunday night
into early Monday morning is expected to bring more impacts.
Strong winds and periods of heavy rainfall are expected to move
onshore late Sunday evening and move across our area overnight
into Monday. The Monday morning commute may be a messy one, give
yourself plenty of extra time if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(This evening through Sunday)

Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will
continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around
moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier
rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the
Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through
tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all
of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in-
all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals
so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south
where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of
writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big
Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay.
These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening.
Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur
coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern
Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area,
and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)

We don`t really get much of a break on Sunday before the next
system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase
late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast
associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW.
Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics
this past Friday`s system in terms of amounts, with the typical
terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall
looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning
before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of
0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher
elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2".
Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big
Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during
this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded
thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post-
frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential
threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally
gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes.

Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly
temperatures. We aren`t seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now,
but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning
lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next
rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is
tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with rain falling
across the region. Steady rain will continue through mid-to-late
morning before pulling east out of the area. While rain showers
can`t be ruled out from this timeframe to early afternoon, it
looks like there will be at least somewhat of a break and perhaps
even an improvement to VFR. Rain showers return by mid-afternoon
with moderate to heavy rainfall on tap just beyond the 24 hour TAF
period. Winds will generally back through the TAF period. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
conditions expected to deteriorate below MVFR if a moderate to
heavy rain shower develops over a terminal.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and light
rain. Light rain will continue through mid-morning. Rain showers are
possible in the late morning to early afternoon time frame, but the
best chance will be late afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns late tomorrow night/early Monday morning in the form of a
fast moving cold front. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail
through the TAF period with improvement to VFR possible between rain
showers. Winds will back ahead of the cold front to become southerly
with a quick return to southwesterly after.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and
light rain at MRY and MVFR with drainage flow at SNS. Steady light
to moderate rainfall is expected through mid-morning with IFR/MVFR
conditions expected to prevail. Conditions will improve by late
morning with intermittent VFR possible, especially if there aren`t
lingering rain showers. Rain showers return tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Rain will persist through the night and into tomorrow morning with
widespread hazardous marine conditions arriving tomorrow evening.
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will back to become
southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall
returns tomorrow night into Monday morning with an accompanying
chance of thunderstorms. Strong to near gale northwesterly
breezes with isolated gale force gusts are expected Monday.
Moderate seas tomorrow will build to become very rough for the
inner waters and outer waters by Monday morning. Seas slowly begin
to abate Wednesday. Rain chances return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for Mry
     Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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