898
FXUS66 KMTR 011127
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
327 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore through the
   Sunday

 - Hazardous Beach Conditions Monday and Tuesday

 - Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday

 - Potential for light rain Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

Popcorn shower activity focused over the interior CEntral Coast
earlier in the nigh has since faded or moved eastward into the
Central.

Focus quickly turns westward as a low pressure is now entering the
northern coastal waters. The low pressure system and associated
frontal boundaries are producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms. KMUX radar even picked up some weak rotation with
the stronger cells, but they`re pulsing on any rotation.
Environmental parameters show less instability and shear are
present the closer one gets toward the coastline. As such, expect
the shower activity to hold together into Sunday mid- morning,
but not expecting any thunderstorms over land. By Sunday afternoon
any showers will end with increasing sunshine. Rainfall amounts
will be a trace to 0.25". Winds increase by the low pressure/cold
front with breezy conditions at the coast.

Coastal flooding remains possible along the bayshore locations of
the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday at
6 PM PST.

Tonight through Monday - Winds ease overnight with clearing
skies. Given the recent rain, decreasing winds, and clearing skies
patchy fog is possible Monday morning. Warmer and drier
conditions to kick off the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sun Nov 1 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

Upper level ridge moves eastward as another upper level low/trough
takes aim at the Bay Area Tuesday. As such, the next round of
rain, albeit light, will move Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall
amounts with this system will be greatest over the North Bay with
amounts 0.10-0.30", Bay Area is less than 0.10", and Central
Coast is trace to nothing.

Thereafter, zonal flow to ridging develops by Wednesday and
continues into next weekend. If the forecast holds, temperatures
will return to the 70s by Friday possibly a few low 80s interior
on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Currently LIFR-VFR with a cold front trekking from northwest to
southeast across the area. STS is currently observing fog due to
ample low-level moisture, light winds, and clearing skies. Moderate
confidence on this continuing through mid-to-late morning and
remaining isolated to STS. The bulk of the rain shower activity is
expected to be done by 12Z; however, isolated post-frontal rain
showers will remain possible through the morning, especially for
coastal terminals. Low probability (less than 20% chance) for
thunderstorms with the best chances over the waters, off to our
east, and along the cold front that is on its way out of the area. Skies
will quickly clear and onshore winds will increase in the post-frontal
environment. VFR is expected to prevail with brief reductions in
ceilings and visibilities possible with rain showers, likely to
MVFR.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. The bulk of the
rain shower activity has ended; however, isolated post-frontal rain
showers are possible through the remainder of the morning. Winds
will veer to become northwesterly mid-to-late morning, increasing
this afternoon into the evening. High confidence in VFR prevailing
through the TAF period. Winds will diminish and back to become
light and southeasterly tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds at or below FL070 are expected
through mid-to-late morning with conditions beginning to improve
between 15Z and 16Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and MVFR with northeasterly flow at SNS. The bulk of the rain is
just reaching the terminals and is expected to be over by 12Z.
Isolated post-frontal rain showers and ceilings on the cusp of
MVFR/VFR will remain possible through the morning. Diurnal winds
will prevail with drainage flow overnight and onshore flow during
the day.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Rain showers with a slight chance for thunderstorms will continue
this morning. Southerly winds ahead of the cold front will
increase  and veer to become northwesterly this afternoon.
Hazardous  conditions for small craft are expected across the
coastal waters  through this evening as a result. Gentle to
moderate breezes and  moderate seas will prevail, building to
become rough in the outer  waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     506-508-529-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea