054
FXUS66 KMTR 200541
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
939 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - Beneficial type rain arrives late this evening and continues
   through Thursday.

 - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

 - Increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through
   Thursday afternoon through Monday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

The leading edge of the rain band is moving through the North Bay.
The rain has been underwhelming so far. Both the radar
estimation and rain gauges are only showing a couple hundredths
so far. Cloud top temperatures are only around -40C. The 00Z
sounding showed some weak CAPE, but it was all below the freezing
level. This basically eliminates the threat of thunderstorms. The
main band is expected over the next 6 hours, and high resolution
models are holding steady with around 1/4" of rain for now. I
wouldn`t be surprised if the next forecast update revises the
expected rainfall down. Either way this system will not bring any
significant impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

The last round of rain for this week arrives this evening and will
gradually spread from north to south overnight. Rain may be
lingering during the morning commute hours depending on your
location, with areas south of San Francisco and the East Bay having
the best chance. Road will be slick and there is a possibility for n
nuisance flooding, such as minor ponding of water on roadways, poor
drainage, or urban areas. Once the front works through, there may be
some post frontal showers though those will diminish as drier air
works its way into the region. In addition to rain, some gusty winds
of 30-40 mph are expected along the coasts and higher terrain. Rain
amounts for this system haven`t changed much with the terrain of the
North Bay, Santa Lucia, and Santa Cruz mountains potentially seeing
up to 0.25-0.50" while everywhere else is closer to 0.10-0.20" or
less.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1231 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

No major changes to the extended forecast. Friday will be the start
of a drier stretch of weather, with temperatures warming up a few
degrees for the weekend. Highs rise into the 60s for most locations
on Saturday, with cooler temperatures in the 50s for those on higher
terrain. Sunday looks to be warmer with the mid 60s to near 70s
expected for interior valleys, the mid 50s to mid 50s along the
coast, and from the 50s to upper 60s for those in higher terrain.
The weather looks to mostly be on repeat through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR-MVFR along with areas of IFR developing in rain tonight and
Thursday. Low pressure system and surface cool front depart to
the south during the day Thursday and Thursday night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR tempo IFR 10-14z Thursday. Rain tonight
and Thursday morning then a few showers lingering to later Thursday.
Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 knots Thursday
morning after cool frontal passage.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR tempo IFR as early as 15z and
late as 20z Thursday KMRY and KSNS. Rain tonight and Thursday then
showers lingering Thursday night. Mainly light southeasterly winds
developing overnight then becoming west to northwest 10 knots
Thursday after cool frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 933 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Hazardous marine conditions and rain returns late tonight into
Thursday with a weak storm system moving across the coastal
waters. This system will bring a return of moderate winds with
strong gusts tonight through Friday before winds abate over the
weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15 feet Thursday and remain
elevated into early next week. Elevated seas will be prolonged by
the arrival of two distinct rounds of long period northwesterly
swell.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will
result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents.
Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can
unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal,
including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more
frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and
piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea