605
FXUS66 KMTR 010910
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
110 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
   substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.

 - Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.

 - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.

 - Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
   of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
   our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Today and tonight)

The forecaster`s lament this morning... Many times in the summer
this past season, we were humbled by fog and stratus. It seems to
be the case again these past few days as the Tule fog and stratus
have impacted a decent portion of our Bay Area forecast counties.
In particular, the North Bay, but that doesn`t mean the rest of
the Bay Area hasn`t been tricky. The forecast challenge for today
will be the timing and the status of the stratus and its effect on
high temperatures. Yesterday, many models were pointing to a few
hours of afternoon clearing for the North Bay; however, that ended
up being quite limited and late in the afternoon if any places
saw sun. This kept high temperatures lower than expected, even
with the changes. Given there isn`t much sign for a huge pattern
change, opted to go with an even more pessimistic forecast than
yesterday. Which means, little no to clearing again for the North
and East Bay and that should keep temperatures similar to yesterday,
perhaps a hair warmer if one holds out hope for a peak of sun
earlier in the afternoon. Any clearing that does happen, it should
be filled back in by the evening, leading to another cloudy
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)

You guessed, it not much change in the extended forecast. An inside
slider is set to dig into the Great Basin midweek, leading to gusty
offshore winds for the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
mountains. Look for northeast winds to gust to about 25-35 mph with
locally higher gusts up to 45 mph for higher ridge tops and favored
gaps and passes. Winds gradually increase late Tuesday night, peak
Wednesday morning, and wind down during the afternoon and evening
hours. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as upper level
ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak ridging through
the weekend with more zonal flow returning after that.

The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook has us leaning
above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just below normal
chances for precipitation. Given the pattern, this leads to some
uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned in to see how the forecast
evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. Generally an
optimistic persistence forecast on tap. Fog/stratus will continue to
be advected into Bay Area terminals tonight with an earlier clearing
time tomorrow thanks to true offshore flow developing. The effects
of high clouds overhead are going to be the wild card tonight. They
seem too thin to stop fog/stratus expansion, but it may be enough
to slow it down and not have the poorest flight conditions last
as long. Slant range visibilities will be reduced due to haze.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with northerly flow. A very
generous BKN low-end MVFR ceiling is being reported. Satellite
imagery shows it being on the western side of the terminal and not
expanding much. Conditions will likely teeter on the edge of IFR/MVFR
if a true ceiling does develop. Northeasterly winds will prevail
through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on VFR
prevailing through the TAF period at both terminals if fog is not
able to be advected up the Salinas Valley with the help of drainage
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas
will prevail Monday through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine
conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase
to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough.
Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and
moderate seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening
with a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains
in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets
can be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and
jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in
the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Never turn your back
to the ocean.

RGass/KR

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
     CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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