333
FXUS66 KMTR 150103
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
603 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cool and calm conditions prevail. Warm temperatures inland, but
still near seasonal normals. Slight warming trend inland mid next
week. Dry conditions persist across high terrain, leading to
elevated grass fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Quiet conditions persist as a trough pattern set up off the West
Coast provides a deep onshore flow regime. This will keep temps
around seasonal normals - slightly below normal along the coast.
Otherwise, dry conditions continue at higher elevations
(generally above about 2,000 feet) where humidity recovery is poor
and grasses are very dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Out persistent trough pattern eventually gets kicked out by a
progressive shortwave trough moving into the West Coast. Not much
worth noting regarding our weather in this case besides the
potential for some drizzle along coastal areas early next week.
Behind the shortwave, we do see a subtle warm up on tap through
Wednesday, but again nothing worth getting bent out of shape for.
We`ll basically see high temps around normal or a few degrees
above. The main hazard over the next week will be dry conditions
inland leading to elevated grass fire danger, especially above
2,000 feet where humidity recovery is poor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions with moderate onshore winds will continue for the
majority of terminals through the evening. Early Sunday morning,
there is a decent chance that IFR/MVFR stratus will return. Since
the skies are mostly clear from the coast to well offshore, the
confidence that stratus will redevelop and impact the more
vulnerable terminals is only moderate. Where it does form, the
duration should be limited to around 6 hours or so before
confidently clearing later Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate onshore winds will continue through the
early evening before easing overnight. Model guidance is
indicating the chance of MVFR ceilings early Sunday morning is
similar to a coin-flip at SFO. While GFSLAMP and HREF are both
indicating around a 50-55% for MVFR ceilings at SFO, HREF shows
closer to 75% at OAK, hence the SCT015 at SFO and BKN015 at OAK in
the 00Z TAFs. If ceilings do develop, there`s high confidence
that VFR conditions will return later Sunday morning while
moderate onshore winds return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon. MRY and SNS
have a good chance for IFR ceilings to develop in the early
morning. Since the marine layer is more compressed at the
southern terminals, there is a small chance for visibility impacts
as well, particularly at MRY. Ceilings will start to clear late
morning with high confidence in VFR conditions returning by
midday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts,  and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through at least  Wednesday.
Localized gale force gusts are likely near the coastal  jet
regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 556 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No real notable changes to the ongoing forecast fire weather wise.
Still highlighting elevated fire weather conditions across the
interior Central Coast. While not in our forecast area, a decent
veg fire developed and spread quickly to over 1k acres in SLO.
This could have easily happened in San Benito or Monterey
counties.


Observations over the last 24 hour and predicted weather continue
to show marine layer influence keeping fire weather conditions in
check for lower elevations and coastal areas. However, about
roughly 2k feet and farther inland conditions remain mild and dry
both day and night. On top of that is onshore flow leading to
breezy conditions each afternoon. Some of the winds are being
enhanced by topography leading to gustier flow in the valleys,
gaps, passes with 20-35 mph gusts.

Simply put, if you`re recreating outdoors, be one less spark in
these elevated fire weather conditions.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...RGass

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