443
FXUS66 KMTR 172050
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
150 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Warming and drying trend this weekend with light, offshore
   winds in the higher elevations through early next week.

 - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of
   sneaker waves and rip currents to the coastline tonight through
   Saturday night.

 - Weak cooling trend next week with unsettled weather potentially
   returning late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 146 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025
(This evening through Saturday)

With the exception of some patchy clouds along the coastline,
satellite shows clear skies across the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Clear skies are expected to continue through the overnight hours
with a low potential for fog development tonight. Current thinking
is that light, offshore (east to northeast) winds overnight will
bring enough drier and warmer air into the interior to prevent fog
from developing. That being said, there is the potential for
localized pockets of fog to develop across the interior North Bay
Valleys (particularly within Sonoma County). Early morning commuters
should be prepared for drops in visibility and to slow down if they
encounter any localized pockets of fog.

High temperatures will warm approximately 2-4 degrees on Saturday as
the upper level pattern splits into weak ridging and a cut-off low.
Upper level ridging will strengthen over California tonight into
tomorrow while a cut-off low develops off the coast of far southern
California. By Saturday, upper level ridging will be the predominant
driving factor for our weather and will be the reason temperatures
warm by a few degrees. Most interior locations will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, coastal areas will be in the 60s to 70s, and far
interior Central Coast will be in the low to mid 80s. For coastal
areas, high temperatures on Saturday will be seasonal to slightly
warmer than normal while interior areas are running on average 5
(but up to 10 in spots) degrees warmer than normal for this time of
year. If you have felt a bit chilly the last few mornings this
warmup will help with that. Morning lows today (Friday) were in the
40s to low 50s and are forecast to be in the 50s on Saturday.

As a reminder, a Beach Hazards Statement goes into effect at 8 PM
this evening and will remain in effect through Saturday evening due
to an elevated risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Sneaker waves
are defined as waves that run significantly further up the beach
than normal and can result in unprepared beachgoers from being swept
off the beach. Remember - never turn your back on the ocean and take
precautions to protect yourself while at the beach.
&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 146 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Warmer and drier weather continues through the weekend as upper
level ridging dominates the Western United States. High temperatures
will remain seasonal to a few degrees above normal in the upper 70s
to mid 80s across the interior and 60s to low 70s along the
coastline. Temperatures start to cool Tuesday as the cut-off low to
our southwest moves inland into Southern California. This system
will not have any major impacts for our area except to lower
temperatures across the region into the 70s across the interior and
60s along the coastline. Weak offshore flow is expected to continue
across the interior into early next week which will keep conditions
drier across the interior mountain ranges. Impacts to fire weather
concerns are minimal given recent wetting rains and high fuel
moistures across the region.

Looking farther out, the CPC is continuing to advertise a
potentially significant Atmospheric River impacting the West Coast
10/25-10/27. The major changes since the overnight update was to
expand the high risk of heavy precipitation into the North Bay and a
moderate risk of heavy precipitation into the the rest of the Bay
Area and majority of the Central Coast. The CPC is additionally
highlighting a moderate risk of high winds for the North Bay and a
slight risk of high winds for the rest of the Bay Area and Central
Coast with this system. This system is still over a week out so the
exact system of the track and QPF totals are likely to fluctuate as
we get closer. Residents should stay up to date on the forecast as
this system approaches in order to have the most accurate
information as to what weather to expect.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions have returned to the region this morning and are
forecast to persist through the TAF period. There is a low
probability for low ceilings and/or fog around the Monterey Bay
terminals and along the coast late this evening into early Saturday
morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the current
TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence for VFR through the TAF period.
Onshore winds will increase slightly this afternoon or early evening
before becoming light and variable overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate to high confidence for VFR through
the TAF period. Onshore winds increase a bit this afternoon before
diminishing after sunset. There is a low probability for low
ceilings and/or fog around the Monterey Bay terminals late this
evening into early Saturday morning, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the current TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 908 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Moderate northerly breezes will continue through the end of this
week. Today, fresh to strong gusts will are expected for the
northern most outer waters, perhaps lingering into Saturday
morning. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend
7 to 10 feet at 15 seconds. Northerly winds should become fresh to
strong late Sunday into Monday, with near gale force gusts
expected for the outer waters north of Point Pinos.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1249 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A long-period northwesterly swell with periods of around 15 to 17
seconds is approaching the coast through the day and will begin
impacting the coastal waters tonight. The long-period swell
increases the risk of sneaker waves and rip currents across the
Pacific coast, potentially catching unaware swimmers off-guard.
Never turn your back to the ocean! Swim near a lifeguard if
possible! If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until
you escape its influence.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM PDT this evening through
     Saturday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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