281
FXUS66 KMTR 030024
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
524 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

 - Moderate to major HeatRisk across the interior through next week
   Thursday

 - Elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain
   through next week Thursday

 - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco
   Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows high clouds streaming over
head and below that most of the stratus from this morning seems to
have eroded. Webcams around Half Moon and San Francisco Bay show a
few lingering low and mid level clouds. The marine layer this
morning was around 500-800ft per the OAK sounding, which was on
track with some of the hi-res models. Expect the marine layer to
continue to compress leaving us at 500ft for tonight, which would
limit stratus development. If it re-develops, it`d start around San
Francisco`s and expand south. The highest confidence for stratus re-
development is around the Monterey Bay and the along the Central
Coast with the potential for patches of dense fog. Any fog or
stratus that develops should be short lived, leading to a warm and
sunny Saturday.

Saturday kicks off the warming trend for the upcoming week, with a
Heat Advisory going into effect at 11AM Saturday and running through
10PM Monday for the majority of the inland areas. Widespread
Moderate HeatRisk with pockets of Major HeatRisk forecast are during
this time. Temperatures might be at risk on Saturday if stratus
doesn`t develop, leading to warmer temperatures near the coast. This

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)

As noted above, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11AM Saturday
and running through 10PM Monday. Models, including the NBM, have
trended with warmer temperatures into early to mid next week even
though an upper level shortwave trough tries to move through Monday.
Given the trends, opted to expand the Heat Advisory into Monday, but
held off on any decisions for Tuesday or Wednesday. Upper level
ridging builds back in Tuesday through Thursday, with a potential
pattern change occuring Friday or Saturday. Temperatures should
start ease Thursday and with the trend continuing into Friday.

With all that being said, no records are in jeopardy as October is
one of the hottest months for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Another push of weak offshore flow across the Bay Area terminals
overnight will help maintain the stratus marine layer confined to
the coast. This combined with further compression of the marine
layer will result in widespread VFR conditions across most terminals
this TAF period. HAF, MRY, and SNS are the only exceptions as they
are susceptible to LIFR ceilings as early as 9-11 PM PDT tonight.
Similar to last night, there is a moderate chance for fog to form at
HAF and MRY. Conditions at these sites will improve early Saturday
morning. High level clouds will continue to dominate the skies
overnight and gradually diminish by Saturday morning. Onshore winds
around 5-10 kt become variable overnight with the push of weak
offshore (NE to E) flow. By late Saturday morning, the onshore wind
pattern prevails with similar speeds as today.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF cycle with high level clouds
cruising through. Northwest to westerly winds gradually ease to
around 5 kt overnight. Another push of easterly winds are expected
at SFO Saturday morning before becoming northwesterly around 12 kt
through the afternoon. Winds at OAK remain southwest to westerly.
Overall, medium to high confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Slight reductions to visibility is expected
into the evening around 5-6SM HZ, but will gradually improve by
tonight. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR into the evening with moderate
confidence for a later return of LIFR ceilings. MRY has a higher
chance of fog development overnight compared to SNS, though low to
medium confidence on the exact timing. A southerly flow develops
overnight at the terminals with an early clearing time for stratus.
By late Saturday morning, VFR prevails through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 523 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A gentle to moderate northerly to northwesterly breeze will
continue through into early next week. Low to moderate seas will
also persist into much of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Ridging will lead to hot and dry conditions across the region
through the seven day outlook. Daytime humidity retention will
remain poor to very poor away from the immediate coast, while
overnight, the thermal belts remain active and humidity retention
in the higher elevations is poor. Pushes of offshore flow are
possible in the higher elevations each morning. Hazardous heat
builds this weekend, particularly impacting fire crews across the
interior mountains and the Santa Lucia range.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-
     506-508-529-530.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Monday for CAZ503-
     504-506-508-510-512>518.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...RGass

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