237
FXUS66 KMTR 031800
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again
   Thursday through Saturday

 - Light to moderate rain across North Bay tonight through
   Tuesday; light rain across rest of Bay Area

 - Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek;
   warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend

 - Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Today and Tonight )

Rain returns to the Bay Area and some of the Central Coast. A low
pressure currently off the NorCal coast will bring rain back to
the region early Tuesday morning and lingering into Tuesday night.
Rain is currently being detect over the coastal waters and is
expected to enter the N Bay close to sunrise and the Bay Area
after sunrise impacting the AM commute. The best forcing and
moisture will be over the N Bay with chance for moderate rain. The
farther south you go rain becomes more light with interior Central
Coast receiving no rain. Rain totals remain the same: highest
across the coastal N Bay Mts 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay
and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the
remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch.

The real wildcard in all of this today will be the chance for
thunderstorms. As the low pressure moves into the N Bay coastal
waters this afternoon it will usher in some cold air aloft. This
will help to destabilize the atmosphere - higher CAPE/ML CAPE and
favorable lapse rates for thunderstorm development. Shear
parameters on the latest guidance are still on track to promote
the potential for rotating cells/waterspouts. The obvious concern
would be any waterspouts moving inland. Thankfully, once the low
moves inland the overall convective environment fades pretty
quick.

Showers will last into the first part of tonight for most of the
CWA with the exception of the interior Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1159 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Chamber of commerce type of weather returns for the long term
forecast. High pressure build in behind the departing rain-maker
from Tuesday. A warming and drying trend kicks off on Wednesday
and counties well into the weekend. Temperatures will initially
be seasonably cool on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower
70s, but by Saturday highs soar into the 70s and lower 80s or
10-15 degrees above normal. Relatively clear skies will lead to
cool overnight lows during the long term, but nothing too cold.

Taking a peek beyond the long term period looks interesting. A lot
can happen between now and then, but early indications show the
storm door may open and remain open well into the middle of
November. CPC keep the 6-10 and 8-14 day above normal temps and
above normal rain. Atmospheric River guidance also shows a much
more active EPac with the potential for ARs to impact the region.
Be sure to follow for future updates.

Based on the latest tidal information and predicted surge another
round of Coastal Flood Advisories may be need Wednesday through
Monday. Initially with minor flooding then more moderate over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain showers will continue across the Bay Area and portions of the
Central Coast through late tonight. Temporary reductions in ceiling
height and visibilities are likely as stronger showers roll through.
For now shower chances are likely through 00-06Z before gradually
tapering off overnight. Expect winds to be more southerly during the
day today and gradually becoming more N to NW again by tomorrow
morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Expect showers and temporary reductions in
visibility and ceiling heights through late this evening. Kept CIGs
on the VFR-MVFR border but may see temporary dips lower than in the
TAF. Generally expecting CIGs to rise/fully become VFR by late this
evening as shower chances decrease at SFO. Moderate S to SW winds
continue this morning and will gradually shift more E to NE
overnight before returning to our typical NW flow tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered rain showers are expected to move
into Monterey Bay this afternoon, leaving behind lower cloud heights
to linger into the early morning hours. Temporary reductions in
visibility and ceiling heights are likely at MRY and SNS if a
stronger system is able to develop and move onshore. Conditions are
likely to remain MVFR overnight at MRY and SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes will prevail today ahead
of  an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance for
thunderstorms  are possible this morning and this afternoon,
especially north of  Pigeon Point. Winds will veer to become
northerly Wednesday.  Moderate to rough seas prevail through the
weekend. Drier conditions expected Wednesday into early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at
Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second)
northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves
and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may
linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach
Hazards Statement.

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy/FR
MARINE...Kennedy

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