047
FXUS66 KMTR 101112
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
312 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions through Tuesday

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns middle of next week through
   the weekend

 - Moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for
   thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 151 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025
(Today and tonight)

There is a southerly surge in place along the coast, but knowing
exactly how far north it has gone is impossible to determine as high
clouds block the satellite imagery north of Monterey Bay. The
weather station at Marina reported fog earlier tonight, Watsonville
reported fog yesterday evening, but Half Moon Bay has not reported
fog at any point so far tonight. This southerly surge will bring the
potential for fog to the immediate coastal regions. Drivers along
the Pacific coast south of the Golden Gate should be aware of
potential rapid changes in visibility. If caught in dense fog, slow
down, use low-beam headlights, and leave extra space in front of you.

For the rest of the region, high clouds tonight will limit
radiational cooling over the Bay Area, and combined with light
offshore flow in the higher elevations, will keep the low
temperatures this morning slightly warmer than yesterday at around
the middle to upper 50s. The interior Central Coast remains clear
and the Salinas Valley could see lows dip into the lower 50s. In the
higher elevations, the thermal belts remain active with lows in the
lower to middle 60s. One more day of warm and dry conditions is
expected today, with highs around 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal
averages away from the immediate coast. Forecast highs are in the
lower to middle 80s across the inland valleys, with the warmest
spots of southern Salinas Valley and the Morgan Hill-Gilroy area
reaching the upper 80s, the upper 70s to the lower 80s near the
Bays, and the upper 60s to lower 70s near the Pacific coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 151 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)

On Veteran`s Day (Tuesday), the upper level ridging responsible for
the warm temperatures begins to erode and shuffle to the east,
starting a cooling trend that will bring highs down around 2 to 5
degrees across the region, with the most pronounced cooling at the
coastal areas. This still leaves the highs anywhere between 5 to 15
degrees above seasonal averages across the region. Given the rest of
the forecast involves unsettled weather, Tuesday is really the last
day to make any preparations to prevent roadway flooding or water
damage.

By Wednesday, a deep upper level trough permits a corridor of
subtropical moisture to develop and approach the state of
California. Yes my friends, this is an atmospheric river, but we
aren`t expecting days of intense rainfall. The really intense
rainfall from this system is expected to come through late on
Wednesday into Thursday, this being the time that the main rain band
with the subtropical tap comes through the region. We are at the
stage where we could start talking about lower confidence rainfall
totals for the region. The initial estimates suggest that the Bay
Area should see and Monterey Bay region should receive around an
inch to an inch and a half of rainfall, with less rainfall within
the rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall),
while the coastal ranges lean towards rain totals from 1.5 to 3
inches. Southerly winds will also increase as the storm approaches,
and although the exact details are still to be refined, widespread
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible with stronger gusts along the
coast and at the higher elevations, especially through favored gaps
and passes. We are also maintaining a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms
as the main rain band passes through Wednesday night into Thursday.
The ECMWF and GFS models are putting K-Index values of 30 to 35
degrees Celsius, suggesting that scattered thunderstorms are
possible. Over the next couple of days, high resolution mesoscale
models will start to capture the system, and they will really help
us narrow down the details of the incoming storm. This is especially
critical in our part of the world, where the local terrain can
significantly influence the weather impacts, terrain that is very
often smoothed out in the global weather models.

Lingering showers continue after the main rain band passes through
Friday before a lull in the rain on Saturday. A second trough will
bring another period of rain chances next Sunday into the early part
of the following week, with the details way too early to be teased
out at this time. Through all of this, the temperatures will drop
like a stone on Wednesday, bottoming out at the middle 50s to lower
60s for the lower elevations on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 309 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Low stratus and fog continue to shift north up the Central Coast
coastline. HiRes guidance suggests that it will remain mostly
offshore with little impact on the terminals. KSTS continues to
see IFR/LIFR vis with patchy valley fog persisting through the
overnight into mid-morning Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...As a southern surge pushes up the Pacific
coastline overnight, the forecast remains VFR across the Bay Area.
There is a slight chance that some of this moisture spreads inland
resulting in low cigs/vis, but confidence is too low for mentioning
in the TAF. A steadier fetch of onshore flow returns late tonight
into Tuesday morning that will increase chances (30-40%) for low
stratus cigs to return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar to the Bay Area terminals, some low
stratus will linger just offshore, with VFR expected to prevail
through the forecast period. Better chances for MVFR/IFR cigs to
return to KMRY and KSNS than terminals to the north late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Southerly flow continues to surge north along the Central coast
overnight bringing low clouds and locally dense fog with shifting
winds. Areas of north of the Golden Gate will remain light to
moderate winds and out of the north. Southerly surge slows down
this afternoon with northerly flow across all waters by early this
evening. Unsettled weather returns midweek with increasing
southerly winds. These winds, combined with a building NW swell,
will generate rough seas across the waters. Winds are expected to
decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas
up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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