297
FXUS66 KMTR 070433
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
933 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

 - Cooler weather continues into next week.

 - Chance for light rain/rain showers early next week across the
   North Bay and Bay Area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
(This evening through Sunday)

Not much change in the short term, generally temperatures will
remain below seasonal averages into tomorrow by about 5-10 degrees
F. Low clouds are anticipated to return overnight and spread inland
into the valleys into early Sunday morning. Low clouds will give way
to mostly sunny conditions by mid-to-late morning on Sunday with
temperatures warming into the low-to-mid 80s across the interior,
upper 70s to lower 80s just inland away from the coast, and 60s to
lower 70s near the coastline. However, it is worth noting the Santa
Cruz area will be warmer with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)

A 500 mb trough will approach the coast by Sunday night and move
inland into Tuesday. This will bring unsettled conditions to the
region through the first half of the upcoming week with the greatest
probability for wetting rains (40-60%) being across the North Bay.
Pre-frontal rain will develop Monday as the front approaches with
isolated to scattered rain showers expected to linger into
Wednesday. There is a potential for thunderstorms Monday night into
Wednesday in wake of the frontal passage as the airmass aloft
becomes more unstable, however confidence remains low. The
probability of precipitation will be greatest over the North Bay and
into the Bay Area through this timeframe, with generally less than a
25% chance across the Central Coast. We will continue to monitor
this pattern change as we move closer to the event and gain access
to higher resolution models and CAMs (convetion-allowing models).

From previous forecaster: "850 temps and 500 mb height will
gradually rebound late week, likely bringing temperatures back to
normal by the following weekend, but there is an alternate scenario
where a reinforcing trough moves in and brings another round of
disturbed weather."

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with stratus
beginning to develop. Generally drier conditions than 24 hours ago
with a ribbon of dry air moving into the area is leading to low to
moderate confidence on sub-VFR ceilings returning to all terminals
tonight with greatest chances generally at bayshore and coastal
terminals. Winds will be light and variable overnight. Widespread
VFR by tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate
confidence on an MVFR ceiling developing tonight. Westerly winds
will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. Low to moderate confidence on
IFR ceilings developing at the terminal tonight. Brief VFR will
prevail by tomorrow afternoon with an early return of MVFR ceilings
tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will prevail through
Monday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail
Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread strong gusts. Light rain can
be expected Monday with a nonzero chance for thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea