742
FXUS66 KMTR 162147
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
247 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Below seasonal temperatures continue through tomorrow before a
   slight warming trend begins Friday into the weekend.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the
   higher elevations with drier conditions beginning this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 245 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Cooler temperatures continue today and tomorrow with highs running
about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. This is
due to a deeper marine layer (around 2000 feet) thanks to persistent
upper level troughing along the West Coast. High temperatures on
Thursday will remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the interior
with highs in the interior East Bay Hills and far interior Central
Coast reaching the low 90s. Coastal temperatures will remain cooler
with highs in the 60s. We can expect another night of overcast
conditions and coastal drizzle before conditions start to dry out
Friday into the weekend. Diurnally breezy winds are expected across
mountain gaps/passes, along ridgetops, and within valleys. Peak
gusts will generally be around 25 mph but in areas where terrain
funneling is likely (e.g. Altamont Pass) gusts may be locally closer
to 35 mph.

Localized elevated fire weather concerns continue across the higher
elevations where drier, warmer conditions persist. Remember, one
less spark, one less wildfire.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 245 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The overall forecast remains on track with a warming trend to begin
across the interior Friday as upper level troughing pushes
northward. Temperatures will warm by two to four degrees on Friday
with additional warming expected over the weekend. This will bring
us back to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the 80s to low
90s. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the weekend with far
interior East Bay and Central Coast reaching the mid to upper 90s.
Latest guidance suggests that high pressure will not build in more
firmly over California until Sunday when we see temperatures peak.
Temperatures are set to cool back down into the mid 70s to low 80s
across the interior Monday as upper level troughing redevelops and
pushes the center of the high pressure back over the Four Corners
region. Winds will remain diurnally breezy along the coast, mountain
gaps/passes, and along ridgetops with gusts to around 25 to 30 mph.

Locally elevated fire weather concerns continue across the higher
terrain above 2000 ft. Conditions will dry further across the
interior with daytime humidity minimums dropping to around 15% to
25% across the far interior Central Coast and East Bay Hills
starting Saturday. Remember: one less spark, one less wildfire.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Marine layer remains around
2000 feet deep, according to the 12z KOAK sounding and the Fort
Ord Profiler. As a result, widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS are
prevailing, but will gradually improve through 21z at most TAF
sites. The exception will be HAF, which keeps CIGs through the the
TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning are starting to
increase, with some gusty conditions developing by 21z,
especially through the gaps and passes. Expect winds to reduce
late this evening as MVFR/IFR CIGs move inland once again, with
widespread CIGS again through tomorrow morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs will continue to improve through 20z,
with clear skies prevailing. Gusty west winds will increase
through this afternoon, reducing once again late tonight. MVFR
CIGs fill around the SF BAY and fill over SFO itself in the late
night. These CIGs will be slower to clear, lingering into late
Thursday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...CIGs look to linger through the late morning
and return earlier than SFO in the night.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGs will linger through the
majority of today, with only a brief window of SCT CIGS expected
between 21z and 02z, as the marine layer quickly returns this
evening. Light winds will become breezy and gusty this afternoon,
before becoming light once again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 854 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Light to moderate winds will continue to prevail through the
weekend. Moderate seas will also continue through the remainder
of the work week, rebuilding to become rough in the outer waters
by Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Palmer
MARINE...Palmer

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