201
FXUS66 KMTR 082245
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
245 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Tule fog and stratus return tonight for Bay Area valleys.

 - Quiet and benign weather this week.

 - Next chance for rain is around December 15.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

The stagnant pattern continues with the story being cloudy
conditions returning tonight for areas that cleared around the Bay
Area and clear conditions for much of the Central Coast. This should
keep low temperatures generally in the 40s for Bay Area counties and
Santa Cruz County. Elsewhere in the Central Coast, lows will vary
from the upper 30s to low 40s for the interior portions, while c
coastal areas sit closer to the mid 40s. A new forecast challenge
also arrives for tonight as temperatures were a bit chillier than
expected last night for the northern Salinas Valley and along the
coast of the southern Monterey Bay area. For now kept NBM in for
the lows; however, should temps drop like last night they may need
to be adjusted a few degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

High pressure holds through the week, leading to dry conditions
through the weekend. Temperatures should warm by mid week, before
cooling a bit again over the weekend. The next chance for rain looks
to be around December 15, where the NBM favors the best chances of
rain around the North Bay with a 15-20% expanding to the East and
South Bay counties and into Santa Cruz County. Ensembles do show the
ridge flattening some which could allow a front to make it into the
region. The details will likely change, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 907 AM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

similar to previous TAF forecast - persistence is the name of the
game. Tule fog and marine layer pattern will keep low CATs for N,
E, S, and SF Bay terminals today through tomorrow. There is a low
chance (20-40%) for some clearing this afternoon for N and E bay,
but high confidence for SF and S Bay.  Central Coast remains VFR.

Vicinity of SFO...SFO had a briefing clearing earlier, but patch
over approach drifted back over terminal. Will keep CIGs through
20Z then thinning thereafter.  Cigs return late tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with diurnal flow.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

Northerly flow remains due to high pressure off the California
coast with moderate winds and locally fresh winds south of Point
Sur. Winds increase to a strong breeze Tuesday into mid week
across the outer waters. A new, long period northwesterly swell is
expected by midday Wednesday, lasting through the latter half of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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