532
AGUS74 KWCO 152307
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
200 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025

...Locally considerable flash and urban flooding possible for California
through Sunday...
...Flood threat developing over the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks...

.California...
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected to continue over most of CA
through Sunday, with the heaviest totals centered over the Transverse and
Peninsular Ranges in Southern CA,. Locally considerable flash and urban
flooding will remain a possibility in these areas. Elsewhere, the primary
threat will remain isolated flash and urban flooding as well as debris
flows. Recently burned areas remain under threat of flash flooding and
debris flow. Precipitation will be gradually tapering off Sunday, with most
of the precipitation leaving the region by Monday.

Multiple rounds of rainfall are possible over the region over the next
week, bringing the potential for flooding to portions of coastal
California. Given that rainfall early in the week is generally light and
the heaviest rainfall may be later in the week, we will wait to consider
adding this risk to the FHO.

.ArkLaTex into the Ozarks...
Meteorological guidance has been indicating for several days the potential
development of a heavy rain event over portions of the Southern Plains and
into the Lower Mississippi Valley mid-week. Placement and timing of the
rainfall has varied significantly over the same period, but the last few
runs of multiple models have been consistent enough to increase confidence
that an impactful hydrologic response may be possible in the region.

Overall, the antecedent conditions are not favorable, with significantly
dry soils throughout the region, which would normally provide significant
mitigation for flooding impacts. However, given many trees have most likely
shed their leaves,the loss of canopy interception will allow for the
potential of increased direct runoff. Hydrologic guidance, such as the NWM
and the EC-forced GLOFAS signal that the QPF totals will be enough to
overwhelm the infiltration rates and allow for runoff. The NWM guidance is
varying with each run on the intensity of the responses but enough runs
provide significant responses to warrant the inclusion of a Limited on the
current FHO.

//Fontenot
Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations

//GKendrick



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