447
AGUS74 KWCO 071535
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025

.Synopsis...
Potential for isolated flash and locally considerable urban flooding in the
Lower Ohio Valley...Ongoing coastal flooding and rain on snow in
Alaska...Heavy rainfall potential across the Southwest late this
week...Ongoing flash flood threat in American Samoa

Lower Ohio Valley...
For day 1 (Tue), there is a threat of isolated flash and urban flooding,
with metro areas such as Louisville, KY being at risk for locally
considerable urban flash flooding. The overall flood threat across this
region is starting out lower due to antecedent soil moisture values that
are extremely low with streamflows running near their seasonal normal (low)
values. Due to the dry soil moisture values, a river flood event is not
expected.

Alaska...
A coastal flood event is developing across portions of western Alaska, with
moderate to major coastal flooding expected. This event will be prolonged
through day 3 (Thu) by a system bringing high winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and storm surge. As the associated precipitation moves further
inland, it is expected to melt snow in the Brooks Range leading to
increased runoff into small streams and rivers.

.Southwest...
Isolated flash and arroyo flooding will be possible over portions of New
Mexico today. Later this week, daily rounds of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall are expected to begin on day 3 (Thu) across this region. While
forecast confidence remains low for the exact location of impacts due to
model spread, rainfall forecasts on day 4 - 6 (Fri - Sun)  focus the
heaviest rainfall over the Mogollon Rim of AZ and into the mountains of SW
NM. Impacts at this time are mainly expected to be flash, urban, and arroyo
flooding. Any burn scars in the region will remain a threat with the
potential for flash flooding and debris flows.

American Samoa...
Isolated flash flooding with associated landslides possible through early
day 3 (Thu).

//Leisure

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