Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL
055 AGUS74 KWCO 141542 HMDNWC National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL 915 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025 .Synopsis... Lingering river and small stream flooding will continue East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...Ice jams and low flows may generate impacts in the Missouri River Basin...Snowmelt and rainfall may generate responses in the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys .Discussion... .East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Minor river flooding is forecast to continue across the region along with residual small stream flooding from runoff generated by rainfall and snowmelt. Dry forecast conditions over the next several days will allow for recessions to continue unimpeded. .Missouri River Basin... Cold temperatures continue across the lower Missouri River basin and could exacerbate ongoing low flows on the Missouri River and smaller tributaries. The Missouri River at Omaha (NE), near Blair (NE), and at Sioux City (IA) is either below the low flow threshold or within a few feet of the threshold, suggesting that any ice blockage upstream could drive the river at those locations even lower and result in impacts due to low flow conditions. Conversely, areas upstream of any jams can expect rises and the potential for isolated ice jam-induced flooding, particularly on any streams or rivers running normal to above normal. .Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys... Hydrologic responses remain possible over portions of the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys starting on day 4 (Fri) through the weekend due a combination of rainfall and snowmelt. Based on guidance from the NWM and RFC ensemble guidance, hydrologic responses will remain at or above the 50% AEP, suggesting mostly in-channel rises. Guidance from OHRFC (MMEFS and HEFS) has backed off from the signals produced yesterday, with a noticeable reduction in the number of river locations that may reach minor flood stage. Nonetheless, there is an overall signal in the guidance that there will be sufficient snowmelt and precipitation to produce hydrologic responses, however the scope of potential impacts has diminished. //Kirkpatrick/Fontenot $$