Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL
699 AGUS74 KWCO 311519 HMDNWC National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL 1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 .Synopsis... Flash and urban flooding possible today across the Texas Hill Country into East Texas and New Mexico...Lingering small stream and river flooding in Alaska... .Texas Hill Country into East Texas... Showers and thunderstorms will continue across central and eastern TX, including portions of the Texas Hill Country and major metropolitan areas, through today, which is likely to cause flash and urban flooding. Besides far-eastern TX, where soils remain primed from recent rainfall, antecedent conditions across the Hill Country and the rest of eastern TX are unfavorable for flooding given dry soils and streamflows near or below normal. However, given the potential for robust hourly rainfall rates with these storms, antecedent conditions may be locally overwhelmed, especially in urban areas and in the complex terrain of the Hill Country. The HRRR-forced National Water Model continues to lack consistency and responses due to dry soils and the model using higher annual recurrence interval thresholds (3.2 ARI vs the standard 1.6 ARI), across much of the state. Additionally, significant river flooding is not expected but minor river flooding is possible in basins that experience the aforementioned heavy rainfall. .New Mexico... Locally heavy rainfall continues across the state which may elicit instances of isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in and around recently burned areas. Monsoonal showers over the past several days have primed soils, particularly across eastern NM. Flooding of low-water crossings, arroyos, and rapid rises in areas of steep/complex terrain remains possible. .Alaska... Small stream and minor to moderate river flooding will continue across portions of western AK and south-central AK due to glacial melt and runoff from recent rainfall. Rivers across these regions are currently at or near crest and will remain in flood through early this week. //JAC $$