489
AGUS74 KWCO 191302
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
700 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025

UPDATE...

For the morning FHO issuance, the limited impact area over the Southwest
was shifted farther east across Arizona and into New Mexico, where locally
heavy rainfall today may result in isolated flash and arroyo flooding.

//RMF

Previous Discussion as follows:

...Flash and urban flooding possible for the Desert Southwest through
tomorrow...
...Flood threat developing over the Southern Plains into the Ozarks
tomorrow...

.California...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the CA/NV
line into central AZ through tonight and again tomorrow afternoon, bringing
the potential of isolated flooding to the region. The greatest threat of
impacts will be in and around recently burned areas, where flash flooding
and debris flow may occur if heavy rainfall moves over. Rainfall should
start to move east of the region tomorrow night, bringing drier conditions
to the area.

.Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Moderate to heavy rainfall starting tomorrow will bring the potential for
flash and urban flooding to the region. Initially, storms will be isolated
and antecedent conditions will be dry, resulting in the main threat being
mainly urban and flash flooding from isolated supercells. Rainfall becomes
a bit more widespread going into the late part of the week, increasing soil
moisture over portions of central Texas into the Ozarks. Generally this
rainfall should be beneficial however, as we progress into the weekend,
the potential for small stream and isolated river flooding will increase,
especially over portions of the Red River Valley. Areas that will need to
be watched closest for flood impact potential over the next 6 days will be
central Texas up to the Oklahoma line. Very few changes to the FHO with
this issuance, with the main change being a southwest extension into the
Hill Country of Texas, including the Big Bend.

//GKendrick

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations




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