624
AGUS74 KWCO 201257
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
700 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025

UPDATE...

For this mornings FHO, the limited impacts selection across the Southern
Plains and Ozarks was expanded slightly eastward in response to the latest
QPF guidance. In the Southwest, the limited impacts selection was adjusted
to include only portions of southern CA and southern AZ, where the
potential for isolated flooding appears highest through the weekend.

//RMF

Previous Discussion as follows:

...Flash and urban flooding possible for the Southwest through tomorrow...
...Flood threat developing over the Southern Plains into the Ozarks
tomorrow...

.Southwest...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the CA/NV
line into central AZ and NM through tonight and into the early weekend,
bringing the potential of isolated flooding to the region. The greatest
threat of impacts will be in and around recently burned areas, where flash
flooding and debris flows may occur if heavy rainfall moves over. Rainfall
should start to move east of the region tomorrow night, bringing drier
conditions to the area.

.Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Moderate to heavy rainfall starting tomorrow will bring the potential for
locally considerable flash and urban flooding to the TX Hill Country region
through Thursday. Additionally, this rainfall will prime the region ahead
of further rounds of rainfall which are expected to manifest beginning in
the late weekend on Sunday and continue into early next week. Initially,
antecedent conditions will be dry, resulting in a flooding threat from
mostly isolated heavy rainfall. However, as the rainfall saturates what
little soil overlies certain areas of central TX this may increase the
potential for flash, urban, and small stream flooding along with bringing
the potential for isolated river flooding. Areas that will need to be
watched closest for flood impact potential over the next 6 days will be
central TX up to the OK line.

//DLeisure

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations




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