035
AGUS74 KWCO 251317
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
700 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

.Update...

A limited area was added to the morning Flood Hazard Outlook issuance for
areas from central Mississippi into southeast Tennessee. Multiple rounds of
rainfall are expected today, bringing the potential for 1 - 2", locally
higher, to the region. Outside of central and northern Mississippi, which
saw 1 - 2" of rainfall last night, soils are generally dry, which will help
to mitigate flooding impacts outside of urban areas. This will help to keep
impacts localized.

//GKendrick

...Flash, urban, and isolated river flooding to continue across portions of
the ArkLaTex through tonight...

.ArkLaTex...
Ongoing convection across eastern TX, AR, and northern LA will continue
through tonight, bringing the potential for isolated flash and urban
flooding. Repeated rounds of rainfall over the past several days has
increased soil moisture across the region, thus increasing vulnerability to
additional rainfall and flooding. Overall, storm activity is expected to be
progressive, so widespread flooding impacts are not anticipated. However,
flooding impacts are possible in urban areas, sensitive basins, and in
areas where heavier rainfall rates or training convection do materialize.
Isolated river flooding is ongoing and forecasted across the
Dallas/Ft.Worth metropolitan area following heavy rainfall earlier today.

.Lower Mississippi Valley...
Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the ArkLaTex
through MS on Day 7 - 8 (Sun - Mon), increasing concern for flooding
impacts. After rainfall tonight, this area will have several days of dry
weather, which should preclude any hydrologic responses across this region
for the initial round or two of rainfall. Both deterministic forcings of
the National Water Model Medium Range Forecast are indicating small stream
responses across these regions. There still remains some discrepancies in
the exact placement of most likely impacts given run-to-run inconsistencies
between the models later this weekend into early next week. However,
current river ensemble guidance (HEFS) isolated isolated river flooding
(30% exceedance) across the region early next week. Given the lack of
confidence and the majority of the rainfall outside of the current forecast
window, a limited flood impact area will not be placed on the Flood Hazard
Outlook at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored over the
next several days.

//JDP



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$$