685
FXUS63 KOAX 051615
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A narrow axis of showers may develop in southeast Nebraska
  early this morning, mainly south of I-80 (20-30% chance). Dry
  conditions are then expected areawide by the afternoon.

- Cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend with a
  gradual warming trend expected next week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into Tuesday of
  next week (20-40% chance), with additional 20% chances
  throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Fairly quiet across the region early this morning behind a
departing cold front. Radar was showing a few light returns
associated with some mid-level frontogenesis along and south of
I-80, but not much in the way of observations showing rain
reaching the ground with model soundings showing a very dry sub-
cloud layer. Still, can`t completely rule out a few drops
hitting the ground this morning, though things should push out
by about noon. Otherwise, the rest of the day will be dry and
perhaps a little breezy with northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph
at times. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Surface high pressure will build in through Sunday giving us a
quiet and pleasant weekend with temperatures remaining on the
cooler side. Expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows
mostly in the 40s, though a few spots in northeast NE and west-
central IA could dip into the upper 30s.

By late Sunday night, the surface high will have pushed off
toward IL/IN with some shortwave energy approaching and a
surface low starting to move through SD. This will drag a warm
front northeast through the area into Monday with decent low
level moisture transport pointing into NE. As a result, expect
some on and off shower and storm development on Monday and into
Tuesday. Highest chances (30-50%) currently look to be Monday
evening into the overnight as the actual shortwave passes
through, but still some slight differences in timing in various
pieces of guidance.

The general pattern for the rest of the week favors building
upper level ridging over the central CONUS which will promote a
gradual warming trend. Expect highs to get back into the upper
70s to mid 80s. However, guidance is in good agreement that
we`ll see various bits of shortwave energy riding over the ridge
and bringing at least small shower and storm chances to the
area at times through the week (currently 20%). These could
certainly impact temperatures on a given day, though there
remains quite a bit of spread on exact timing of the various
systems, so overall forecast confidence is rather low beyond
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Northwesterly winds will continue gusting at 20-25 kts
before gradually calming after 23-00Z. Scattered clouds are
expected to pass by at 5000-7000 ft through the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Wood