249
FXUS63 KOAX 052125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
325 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as snow and
  some ice moves through. The highest potential for at least 1"
  will be northeast of a Niobrara to Red Oak line (50-70%
  chance).

- Breezy winds that gust to 25-35 mph will join the snow/ice
  Saturday, further reducing visibilities.

- Highs next week will continue to be a roller coaster; cold
  Sunday, much warmer Tue/Wed, before falling back below normal
  Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features northwesterly flow that
is pouring in from the Pacific Northwest before becoming zonal for
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Warm temperatures have been
creeping in from the west this afternoon behind a wind shift,
helping highs into the lower 40s to upper 30s that should aid in
clearing some of the minor snowpack in place. Steeper lapse rates in
the low-to-mid levels have been consistent in soundings this
afternoon, and are apparent in satellite imagery as some texture
begins to develop at the cloud top level, signaling increasing
chances for a few showers that will move quickly across
northeast Nebraska before diminishing by the time they reach the
NE/IA border through 8 or 9 PM. Initially, anything that does
fall will be rain, with increasing chances for some ice to join
in as we get later into the evening and as showers push into the
cooler eastern half of the forecast area. Overall amounts
should be only a trace, but could provide some slick spots on
untreated surfaces. This evening into the overnight hours,
temps will be bottoming out in the teens and twenties as gusts
diminish, gradually shifting southeasterly pre- dawn in
anticipation of tomorrow`s weather maker.

The shortwave currently situated over southern British Columbia will
approach the forecast area Saturday morning, helping to strengthen a
surface low that travels from west-to-east from Nebraska into Iowa.
The combination of strong warm aid advection, positive
vorticity advection, and frontogenesis will be plenty of
forcing to develop a north-to-south oriented band of
precipitation that will be a combination of rain to the south,
snow to the north, and some ice that has to first overcome dry
air before reaching the ground. The amount of forcing will be
more than enough to do just that, with the latter part of the
day having cooler temperatures and increase snow potential when
the band pushes into Iowa.

Timing out when precipitation is expected to start, things
should begin hitting the ground close to 10 AM in northeast
Nebraska arriving to Lincoln by 2 PM, and Omaha 2-3 PM. The
general footprint for the rain/snow will become more narrow as
you move south, with Omaha and Lincoln only expected to see
rain/a few flakes for around 2 hours or less before the band has
already shifted east. Farther north, it`ll be much wider and
allow for increased accumulation potential for that reason and
because of the cooler temperatures. By 8 PM Saturday,
precipitation should have cleared the area as it pushes across
Iowa. One complicating factor will be gusty winds that will
range from 25-35 mph at their peak and will further reduce
visibilities and increase wet bulbing wherever it is possible.

Recent model runs continue to tighten up the placement of snowfall
accumulations, with the corridor of highest snowfall steering
largely clear of the forecast area in favor of far eastern
South Dakota and IA/MN (meaning those traveling north on I-29
should be ready for travel difficulties). A Winter Weather
Advisory is in place along and north of a line from Niobrara to
Harlan, where the best chance to see 2" or more exists
(currently (50-60% chance). Going two to three counties to the
north east will increase snowfall totals to 4-6" or more very
quickly, making regional travel difficult heading north or east.
Omaha and Lincoln are going to miss out on any meaningful
snowfall accumulation, but untreated surfaces that could still
be we will freeze overnight as temperatures fall into the single
digits and teens.

Sunday and Beyond:

For the latter half of the weekend we`ll be right back in the ice
box that we just climbed out of, with highs only mustering teens and
twenties with a few minor flurries possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours because of steep lapse rates that nose
into the DGZ. Fortunately the cold will be short-lived, as
southwesterly winds bring warmth for Monday and Tuesday, the latter
of which has temps topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s. This
warmth will also be short-lived as another system moving through the
persistently northwesterly flow ushers a winter system through the
upper Mississippi Valley. While this system is set to miss us at
this time, another sheared-out wave will be poised to follow in it`s
footsteps and more southerly, being the next chance for snowfall
for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Southwesterly to northwesterly winds are in place early this
afternoon, with gusts anticipated to pushing into KOFK, while
KOMA and KLNK stay under 15 kts. Late this afternoon and early
evening, a 15-25% chance for light rain showers will pass to the
north of KOFK/KOMA, but may briefly bring MVFR ceilings (for
one hour or less) if they shift southward. Overnight, winds will
begin shifting southeasterly, in anticipation for snow and rain
to move in from the northwest. Snow is set to arrive to KOFK
alongside strong wind gusts of 25 kts and MVFR ceilings at 15z,
with similar gusts and ceilings developing at KOMA and KLNK at
the same time, though rain/snow chances arrive tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     NEZ011-012-015-018.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for
     IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen