023
FXUS63 KOAX 172119
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
319 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% chance of rain this evening. Breezy winds out of the
  southeast gusting to 20-35 mph should decrease this evening.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Cloud cover has spread across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
as a low pressure system approaches, currently located over the
Nebraska Panhandle. Scattered showers have developed along the
warm front along the Missouri River north of Omaha. Marginal
elevated instability has led to isolated thunderstorms along
this boundary. We`ll continue to see chances for isolated
thunderstorms as showers expand across the area this afternoon.
A cold front will move through tonight shifting winds to
northerly and bringing back in seasonably cool air.

Cooler temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s to mid
50s across our area. Dry weather returns as a ridge moves
overhead with surface high pressure in place. Ridging amplifies
over the southeastern CONUS midweek leading to strengthening
southwesterly flow across the central CONUS. A shortwave will
move through on Wednesday bringing a shift back to southerly
surface winds which will warm afternoon highs back up into the
mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday afternoon.

Late in the week we see the strong upper-level trough over the
western CONUS eject a strong Low east toward the Rockies as a
second strong Low takes its place. This Low will weaken as it
approaches, expected to pass south of our area across Kansas and
Missouri. This would be a great snow scenario if we were colder,
but with afternoon highs still in the 50s on Thursday, and 40s
on Friday, we should stay too warm for any potential snow.
Expect a cold rain to start to move in from the south on
Thursday, staying mainly south of I-80 through the afternoon.
Rain chances expand northward Thursday night into Friday, coming
to an end Friday evening before the sub-freezing temperatures
arrive.

Ridging moves back in over the weekend, with a warm front
bringing temperatures back up into the mid 50s for Saturday and
Sunday. The next significant weather system looks to arrive
around Monday next week. Ensemble still not showing any
significant chance for snow even with this system.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the potential for a
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event toward the end of November,
bringing in colder temperatures around the second half of next
week into early December. We are already seeing colder
temperatures showing up toward the end of our forecast
models/ensembles supporting this scenario. With this we could
potentially see chances of snow start to increase, with
ensembles starting to ramp up chances the weekend after
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

MVFR cigs have expanded eastward to around KFET, currently
impacting KOFK and KLNK. Models keep the MVFR cigs west of KOMA,
but seeing current trends continuing to expand eastward closer
toward KOMA, went ahead and put in cigs around FL030 at KOMA
starting around 20Z. MVFR cigs will hold over the area until
around 00-01Z at KOMA and KLNK, and closer to 04Z at KOFK. A
cold front will move across the area shifting winds to
northwesterly overnight and bringing MVFR cigs back into
northeast Nebraska and KOFK early Tuesday. As of right now
there`s about a 20% chance MVFR cigs make it as far south as
KOMA and KLNK around 12Z, so keeping these out of the TAFs.
Expect MVFR cigs to hold through the remainder of the TAF period
over northeast Nebraska while VFR cigs hold at KOMA and KLNK
with winds staying out of the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy