523
FXUS63 KOAX 192322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a few isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon
  into tonight near a passing cold front.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected,
  particularly Sunday into Monday.

- A gradual warming trend begins Wednesday with temperatures
  returning to the low 70s to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The cooler air has arrived across northeastern Nebraska and
northwestern Iowa. Current temperatures range from the upper 60s to
mid-70s behind the front, with 80s and 90s ahead of it. A shortwave
will enter the region later this afternoon and low pressure is
currently over Iowa. A cold front will continue to push across the
region this afternoon. Ongoing showers continue to march across
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa this afternoon, extending from Ceresco
to Fort Calhoun and Elk Horn (IA). A few thunderstorms are starting
to pop up near the front in an area with some instability. Should
any of these storms be able to strengthen, they may produce some
gusty winds, hail and heavy rain. Additional chances (20-30%) for
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will linger through the
overnight hours.

A disturbance over the Big Horns Sunday morning will progress east
across northern Nebraska and the Dakotas through the day, bringing
additional chances for some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday. Expected highs will be very fall-like, topping out in the
50s and 60s. Lows will be a tad chilly, particularly Tuesday
morning, dropping into the mid to upper 40s for some and the low 50s
for those along and south of I-80.

Weak ridging sets up, moving across the Great Plains and Central
High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect a break from
precipitation chances and the beginning of a gradual warming trend.
By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will return to the mid-60s for
many. Thursday highs return to the mid to upper 60s for many, with a
few low 70s to our west. Another disturbance enters the region
Wednesday night/Thursday, bringing chances for a few showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

MVFR ceilings are observed at terminals this evening. 2321z
radar imagery shows widely scattered showers approaching the
KLNK terminal, with arrival expected by 01z. There is some
uncertainty on how far east this activity will make it to KOMA,
so have left mentions out. Ceilings deteriorate to IFR late
this evening, lasting for much of the period before rising to
MVFR in the late afternoon. Some model guidance keeps ceilings
at LIFR after 10z, but chances for that remain at around 30%.
Another arc of showers will affect terminals largely after 17z
so have introduced mentions with this issuance. There is a low
10-20% chance for some fog overnight. Winds remain from the
north northeast for the duration of the period at 12 kts or
less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo