413
FXUS63 KOAX 200531
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog development is expected tonight into Thursday morning.
  Patchy dense fog is possible, especially in areas that have
  received recent heavy rain.

- There is a low chance (15-30%) of thunderstorms across
  northeast Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. Severe
  weather, including large hail and damaging winds will be
  possible with the strongest thunderstorms.

- Temperatures fluctuate between the 70s and 80s with periodic
  thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the forecast
  period. Severe weather may continue to be possible with
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A powerful MCS moved through the region earlier this afternoon.
In it`s wake a cooler and more stable airmass has filled in.
Surface high pressure and clear skies further contribute to a
quiet and quiescent night. These factors on top of recent
significant rainfall should support widespread fog development
across the area. Patchy dense fog may eventually develop,
especially in areas that have received the most rainfall. Trends
will be monitored for a potential dense fog advisory for
Thursday morning. Otherwise, temperatures fall into the 60s by
sunrise.

The quiet weather begins the day on Thursday, but a weak
frontal boundary will nose into northeast Nebraska by mid-
afternoon. This boundary and a passing disturbance may be enough
to initiate a few thunderstorms. While thunderstorm coverage
will be limited, any thunderstorms that form will have a potent
environment to work with. Long, straight hodographs and steep
mid-level lapse rates are expected to support supercells. Any
supercells would be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. Any thunderstorms are not anticipated to persist much
into the evening before dissipating. Outside of any
thunderstorms, most will not see any weather and can expect a
quiet afternoon with high temperatures in the lower 80s.

Friday sees temperatures a touch warmer than Thursday as upper-
level ridging builds to our southwest. A passing disturbance may
once again result in afternoon thunderstorms across the area,
but these chances are low (15-30%) at this time. The better
chance for thunderstorms arrives this weekend as another cold
front sags into the area. Temperatures are forecast to cool into
the 70s due to increased cloud cover and periodic thunderstorm
chances. Severe weather continues to be something to monitor as
seasonably strong mid- to upper-level winds support thunderstorm
organization. Heading into next week, the pattern changes
little. A gradual ebb and flow between slightly warmer
temperatures in the 80s with less clouds and thunderstorms to
slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s with increased clouds
and thunderstorms remains the main story. This pattern looks to
further erase any long-standing rainfall deficits and further
add to areas with a surplus across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Fog is expected across much of the area into Thursday morning,
with visibility dropping to 1/2 SM or less at times. Fog should
dissipate toward 15Z with FEW to SCT clouds around 3000-5000 ft
during the day. Could also see storms near OFK sometime in the
21-01Z window, but guidance keeps coverage pretty spotty and is
in good agreement that they avoid LNK and OMA, so did not
include mention at this time. Otherwise, expect southerly winds
under 10 kts through the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA