165
FXUS63 KOAX 030420
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1020 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wednesday brings a 15% chance for a few flurries, snow
  showers, and/or some freezing drizzle as arctic air pours into
  the area early.

- Thursday morning lows will be below zero for most.

- Expect a warm up again Friday, with another cool down for the
  weekend`s second half.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Clear skies allowed for efficient radiational cooling this
morning. Widespread single- digit lows qualified the day as the
coldest since February. Since then, mid and high-level cloud
cover has developed in response to widespread isentropic
upglide as warm air tries to scour out the arctic air in place.
In relation, afternoon temps range from upper-30s on the CWA`s
western fringes to upper-20s in western Iowa.

Current 1024mb pressure readings in British Columbia hint at
the significance of the arctic high pressure headed this way.
The leading edge of the cold air will push into Norfolk around
midnight tonight and through Omaha and Lincoln by 6am.

.WEDNESDAY...

Just behind the front, light precip is possible (15% PoPs) with
light snow and freezing drizzle the most likely p-types. A warm
nose at just 800 feet above the surface may be deep enough to
melt any flurries. They`d instantly freeze to any surface they
came into contact with (freezing drizzle).

High temperatures will be set around the time of the front`s
passage. Temperatures and morale will fall over the course of
the day. Wind gusts of 20-30mph out of the northwest are
expected to push apparent temps into the single digits by the
afternoon. Kids walking home from school should be properly
bundled. It`ll be cold even considering we`re on the last page
of the calendar. Surface temperatures will fall shy of the tenth
percentile of seasonal climatology.

.THURSDAY...

The core of that high pressure will pass over the OAX CWA at
about 3am Thursday morning leaving clear skies, calm winds, and
very effective radiative cooling with the fresh snow on the
ground. This should allow temps to slip sub- zero for the first
time this season. Lincoln`s record low (-3/1902) is in peril.

The frigid aberration won`t last long. Thanks to sunshine and
return southerly flow that develops on Thursday, high temps
bounce back to near freezing on the western edge of the forecast
area while mid-teens hold on in parts of western Iowa. The
tight temp gradient remains overnight, too. From 22F at Niobrara
to about 7 at Villisca, IA.

.THE WEEKEND...

Friday may be warm enough to melt some leftover snow for a few
minutes in the afternoon.

Saturday`s 15-30% PoPs are tied to a shortwave swinging through
on northwesterly H5 flow around the Hudson low. QPF looks low
from this POV, but timing and placement confidence is growing
with time. Best chances of snow will remain northeast of this
forecast area. Sunday`s temps are knocked down a peg or two
behind the departing system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR cigs have started to move into northeast Nebraska and KOFK
this evening as the cold front moves in. Along with the front
comes a shift to north-northwesterly winds. This will continue
to spread southeastward overnight with a period of flurries or
freezing drizzle possible (15-20% chance) for a few hours after
the front moves through. Expect MVFR cigs to hang around through
much of the day on Wednesday, likely clearing towards 22-00Z.
Once cigs clear, we`ll see VFR conditions through the rest of
the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy