598
FXUS63 KOAX 130522
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60 to 100% chance for showers and storms for areas
  along and north of Interstate 80 after midnight tonight.
  Storms will likely be severe with damaging wind gusts, some of
  which could be significant (65-80 mph), and heavy rainfall
  which may lead to flash flooding.

- More showers and storms develop Thursday evening into Friday
  morning (30 chance south, 80% north). Some storms could be
  strong.

- Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Ridging is evident over the south central CONUS on this evening`s
water vapor imagery. Overshooting tops in western Nebraska are
running -85C. The KLNX radar is lit up with severe convection that`s
headed this way. It`s tied to an upper level shortwave. Upscale
growth has been observed in the western half of Nebraska. Model
guidance has been consistent in keeping the resultant MCV chugging
into the eastern part of the state after midnight tonight and
bringing a swath of damaging winds. Some gusts of 75mph+ are
possible (5% at any given point). Large hail and a QLCS type tornado
can`t be ruled out (2%), but flash flooding due to heavy rain is
much more likely (15%+). Guidance does have the strongest winds
tending to fizzle out before the storms hit the Missouri River.

The warm front continues to lie along the KS/NE border and
another LLJ is ramping up and transporting plenty of moisture
over the cooler air in place. Our 00Z balloon showed 1.6" of
PWAT which is over the 90th percentile. Warm cloud depths of
4,000 meters means the rain will be efficient.

The HREF has probability of 3"+ of rain in three hours at
30-50% for all areas north of the Platte River / I-680. It`s
closer to 50-80% for 1"+ of precip in 3 hours. Current FFG
suggests 2-3" in three hours would be about all soil could
handle. Thankfully, the system looks progressive enough that
there won`t be much for training / repeating rounds of rain.
Still, I expect a ribbon of 3-5" rainfall reports.

.THURSDAY...

The last of the strongest storms should be out of the area by
8am although some wrap around showers could linger through mid-
morning around the SD state line.

Temps will have a wide range from north (77F) to the south (95F)
where dewpoints in the 70s will push heat indices past the 100F
mark. Should the forecast pan out, a heat advisory may be
necessary in the southern tier of counties, but confidence is
low with convective debris / outflow as possible flies in the
ointment.

A 15-20% chance of thunderstorms redevelops in the afternoon as
instability peaks near 4000 J/kg. Convection is conditional,
meaning it`s most likely to never develop, but if it is able to
bust through the inhibition, a supercell is possible which
suggests wind and hail damage is possible. Again, this is less
than likely (20%).

Better chances of precip wait again until after dark for the
approach of another MCV/MCS that originates in the Front Range.
We`ll also watch PoPs climb as the LLJ ramps up again. The HREF
suggest rainfall rates will be less than those of early Thursday
morning, but should another 2-3" fall on tonight`s soggiest
locations, flash flooding would once again be an issue.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

Temps on Friday and Saturday will again have a 15-20 degree
discrepancy from north (70s) to south (90s). Regular
opportunities for showers remain (40-60% Friday) and (60-70%)
for Saturday as monsoonal moisture continues to stream around
the high pressure ridge over TX. PoPs peak overnight thanks to
that nocturnal summer jet.

Saturday night brings a strong cold front through the area
leaving Sunday the coolest day of the week so far. With the sfc
high settling into the area, skies will clear from north to
south and the day should be mostly dry.

.BEYOND...

Global models tend to diverge in solutions for next week with
the Euro bringing a trof through the area, the Canadian a ridge,
and the GFS splitting the difference. Will keep regular 20% PoPs
in the forecast for next week, which isn`t far from August
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Storms will move out of central Nebraska this evening, and effect
the TAF sites overnight and into early Thursday morning. A few of
the stronger storms will be capable of damaging winds and very heavy
rain fall. The best chance for severe weather to impact KOFK will be
between 08-10Z, and KOMA could see impacts between 09-12Z. A few
storms may graze KLNK between 10-13Z. Expect conditions to
deteriorate to MVFR, perhaps IFR, as storms roll through. VFR
conditions should return around 16Z Thursday, with winds remaining
out of the northeast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Cage