813
FXUS63 KOAX 011707
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Last night`s heavy rainfall has lead to significant flooding
  and rises along area rivers. While a few showers are possible
  today in southeast NE/southwest Iowa, the heaviest rain has
  come to an end.

- Expect drier weather Friday into the start of next week along
  with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Today through Friday...

Gulf moisture and the remnants of Hurricane Polo brought
significant rainfall and subsequent flooding to eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa last night. A swath of 3"-5" fell along I-80
from Lincoln to Omaha, with pockets of 6"-8". Lincoln`s official
weather station reached 6.15", breaking it`s all-time single-
day rainfall record of 5.45" set on Aug. 29th of 1910. Flooding
covered roads, submerged vehicles, and even triggered a mudslide
near Crescent, IA. Ongoing flooding of rivers and streams, is
expected to continue downstream into the Missouri River in
southeast Nebraska.

Lingering spotty showers are expected to clear out this afternoon as
a surface high begins to build into the region behind the departing
low. Temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s with decreasing
humidity. Overnight, lows will fall into the mid 40s, before rising
back into the 60s Friday with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Beyond...

High pressure will begin to build over the Four Corners region this
weekend, with northwesterly upper level flow bringing cool dry air
to the Central Plains. Highs will remain in the mid 60s to low 70s
Saturday and Sunday.

A trough will dip into the northeastern CONUS Monday, taking
temperatures down a few degrees, into the mid 60s. The over the
intermountain west will shift eastward on Tuesday, bringing highs
back into the 70s for Tuesday through the end of the work week.
While we can`t completely rule out a weak disturbance kicking up a
couple of showers around the middle of the week, overall moisture
finally looks to be lacking.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Patchy MVFR cloud cover will continue to scatter out and sink to the
southeast of the TAF sites this afternoon. Primarily VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will remain out of
the north, at 10 to 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 to 30
kts. Wind speeds will diminish around 00, dropping below 12 kts
and remaining light through the overnight and early morning
hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG