238
FXUS63 KOAX 201715
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1115 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog has overspread the area this morning. Expect
  gradually clearing behind a cold frontal passage by early
  afternoon.

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 30-80% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

- Cooler temperatures arrive by Thanksgiving and persist into
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Today...

Winds began to shift to the north overnight, as a cold front moved
in from the northeast. Radiational cooling enhanced by clear skies
ahead of the front allowed for the development of patchy fog
early last night. Another area of fog developed behind the
front. By 2 AM the front remained draped from Neligh, NE to
Yankton, SD. Visibilities ranged from a quarter to 5 miles with
temperatures in the 30s and low 40s.

Lower visibilities are expected to continue to spread southeast
with the passing front through the early morning hours. The
rising sun will struggle to erode fog this morning. Temperatures
will vary based on how much sunlight is allowed to reach the
surface through the decreasing cloud cover. Overall, highs will
generally top out in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Fog will likely redevelop tonight, as temperatures dip into the
mid 30s and low 40s. A low pressure system will move out of the
Four Corners region and into Central Kansas tonight, with
precipitation overspreading the southern Plains. A few showers
could sneak into southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa late
this evening and overnight, with rain chances continuing to
overspread the southern half of the forecast area on Friday.
Temperatures will remain cooler than the previous few days,
topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Beyond...

Rain chances will diminish Friday evening as the low shifts east and
subtle upper ridging builds in for the weekend. Temperatures will
rebound back into the upper 50s and low 60s on both Saturday and Sunday.

Another low will move out of the southwestern CONUS, and into the
Central Plains on Monday. This will bring another chance for showers
early next week, with the best chance once again across the southern
half of the forecast area on Monday.

A clipper system will drop southeast out of Canada by mid week
bringing noticeably cooler temperatures to the region just in
time for the Thanksgiving holiday. While the track of this
system remains uncertain at this time, if it drifts far enough
south as a few of the longer range models indicate, we could see
a couple snow flakes late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog and LIFR ceilings have become more widespread and lasted
longer than earlier model forecasts. However, latest model data
have adjusted to these observations, and have trended in a much
more pessimistic direction with respect to visibilities, and
moreso, ceiling heights for the remainder of today through
tonight. It does appear that a period of VFR conditions are
possible at KOFK late this afternoon into early evening.
Otherwise, the model data suggest that LIFR conditions will
likely continue into Friday morning. The chance of light rain
will increase toward the end of the forecast period at KLNK.
Winds will continue from the north or northeast at less than 12
kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ065>068-078-
     089>093.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ069-079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Mead