079
FXUS63 KOAX 161056
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-70% chance of storm development south of I-80
  this evening (likely after 7 PM). A few could produce gusty
  winds or hail. In addition, localized flooding could develop
  with potential for training thunderstorms.

- Additional rounds of storms are expected from Friday
  afternoon into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at
  times, with the threat of flooding increasing with each
  successive round.

- Cooler on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s, but we
  quickly warm back up with 80s Friday and mid 80s to lower 90s
  for the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Showers and storms continued across southeast NE into southwest
IA early this morning as a shortwave trough and MCV were
spinning near the Sioux City area and low level moisture
transport was pointing toward the I-80 corridor. At the surface,
the cold front responsible for the initial severe storms last
night was south of the area, stretching west to east across
northern KS and northeast into IA. As a result, today`s severe
weather threat has decreased across much of the area, with any
notable instability remaining south of the NE/KS border.
However, many pieces of guidance still develop some storms this
evening near and south of I-80 with some low to mid-level
frontogenesis and moisture transport riding up and over the
boundary. There could be just enough instability for a few
strong to isolated severe storms with strong winds and hail.
Really the biggest threat will likely be heavy rain/flooding
with guidance showing potential for training storms from west to
east potentially over some areas that received 1-2" of rain
last night per radar estimates. All that said, a few pieces of
guidance (e.g. 16.06Z NAMNest) keep the additional precip
tonight well to our south, so confidence isn`t exactly high that
we`ll see notable impacts tonight.

Most, if not all, precip should exit early in the day Thursday
with surface high pressure building in and leading to a dry and
quite cool day for mid-July. Expect highs mostly in the mid-70s.
The cool- down will be short-lived as the surface high pushes
east on Friday and brings a return of southerly flow and
temperatures back in the 80s for most. In addition, a surface
low will track somewhere through the region and help drag the
front to our south back north with potential for some shower and
storm development along it sometime Friday afternoon into
Friday night.

The warmup will continue into the weekend with highs back in
the mid 80s to lower 90s for some, though we will have a series
of shortwaves sliding through and interacting with the stalled
boundary and giving us additional shower and storm chances which
could impact temperatures on a given day. The big question will
be where the front sets up, with guidance still showing a fair
amount of spread. By early next week, the boundary looks to
finally push northeast of the area with upper level ridging
building in and leading to a warmer and dryer period, as highs
reach the 90s for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility continue to develop as
storms exit the area. Currently think OFK will be the only TAF
site to see those ceilings/visibility during the day, but still
expect at least some SCT lower clouds at OMA and LNK. Wind will
be out of the north around 10-12 kts, with a few gusts around
20 kts at OFK. Also expect storms to develop after 00Z, but they
should remain south of I-80 and the TAF sites, though some MVFR
ceilings could sneak back into LNK this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA/Petersen