147
FXUS63 KOAX 091630
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1030 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today into Monday morning when wind chills could approach
  zero in northeast Nebraska.

- Gradual warming is expected this week, with highs rebounding
  into the 50s and 60s. Some 70s are even possible on Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Today and Tonight:

Within an amplifying mid-level trough from the Great Lakes into
the mid-MS Valley, early morning water imagery shows an embedded
vorticity maximum progressing south through the northern Plains
and upper-MS Valley. That feature will continue south through
the mid-MO Valley today with a few flurries remaining possible
this morning in far eastern NE and western IA. By this afternoon,
clouds will diminish as subsidence on the backside of the
passing disturbance overspreads the area. Despite the increasing
sunshine, it will be cold with highs in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Blustery, north winds will continue through much of the day
before diminishing by this evening.

Tonight, surface high pressure will pass to the immediate west
of the area with the decreasing clouds and winds enhancing
radiational cooling potential. As such, this forecast update has
trended toward the low side of model guidance on overnight lows,
ranging from the single digits to around 17. Wind chills could
approach zero in parts of northeast NE with single digits above
zero elsewhere.


Monday through Saturday:

A rather uneventful, but warmer weather pattern is expected
through much of the upcoming week. An amplified mid-level ridge
currently positioned along the West Coast will gradually build
east into the central U.S. by the end of the workweek, ahead of
a trough moving into the Interior West. The prevailing northwest
flow aloft will encourage a dry and warmer surface pattern
through Friday. We could see a day or two of high fire danger in
northeast NE; however, there is currently no model signal for a
period of stronger winds that would enhance a wildfire risk.

By next weekend, the 12z global models indicate the above-
mentioned trough potentially moving into the Great Plains.
However, there is considerable model variability in the handling
of that system.

Highs in the 30s and 40s on Monday are forecast to warm into the
50 and 60s from Tuesday through Thursday with some 70s even
possible by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A deck of MVFR ceilings continues to overspread eastern Nebraska
late this morning, impacting KOFK and KLNK. Ceilings will
continue to scatter and improve, with a return to VFR conditions
expected at all terminals by 18-20Z. Gusty north-northwesterly
winds will continue, with afternoon gusts up to 25 kts before
gradually calming under 12 kts after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood