300
FXUS63 KOAX 260529
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain with a few thunderstorms Saturday morning.
  Additional rain with a few thunderstorms develop Saturday
  evening. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2+ inches are expected.

- A brief warmup into the 70s and drier weather on Sunday into
  Monday.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Tuesday through Thursday with
  heavy rainfall. Flooding may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A broad upper-level trough over the central Rockies with several
embedded disturbances continues to lift northeast towards our
area. This is resulting in widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This
rain will continue to lift northeast overnight into Saturday
morning. It`ll be a soggy start to the weekend with 1 to 2
inches of rainfall for many. Temperatures hold steady in the 60s
during this time.

In the wake of the morning rain, a brief period of drier
conditions may develop, though spotty showers could linger.
Temperatures should warm into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s
by mid-afternoon. As we move through the afternoon and evening
another round of rainfall is forecast. While the ascent from the
upper-level trough will be positioned east of the area,
lingering ascent under this disturbance should help with
redevelopment. The best chance (50-70%) of showers and
thunderstorms is expected across far eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa heading into Saturday night into Sunday morning.
While rain gradually shifts east through Sunday morning, patchy
fog is likely to develop behind it.

Fog should lift by Sunday afternoon as drier conditions return
to the region. While it remains mostly cloudy, most locations
should see 70s for highs by the afternoon. Dry weather largely
continues into Monday with only a low chance of showers Monday
morning. The clouds linger, but another dry afternoon in the 70s
can be expected.

The dry weather does not last long. The remnants of Polo will
combine with an upper-level trough approaching the area heading
into the work week. By early Tuesday morning, widespread
showers and thunderstorms begin to push into the area once
again. Periodic showers and thunderstorms may linger into much
of the remainder of the week as this system will be slow moving.
That said, uncertainty remains on how quickly this system
progresses across the region. That said, with the abundance of
recent rainfall, flash flooding and rises in area rivers may
become an increasing concern. Outside the return of wet weather,
cool temperatures in the 60s make a return as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Widespread rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms are
observed across terminals this morning resulting in continued
IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities. Should see conditions
improve by mid to late morning to MVFR at KOMA and KLNK,
eventually transitioning to VFR with clouds at 4,000 to 6,000
feet in the afternoon and evening. There is a 40% chance for
some storms around 00z, but given spatial uncertainty seen
amongst model guidance, have held off on any mentions. While
some improvement is expected at KOFK to MVFR in the afternoon,
more IFR conditions return after 02z as fog overspreads that
terminal. Winds remain from the southeast at 12 kts or less for
most of the period, becoming calm after 00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Castillo