513
FXUS63 KOAX 052316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from late
  this afternoon into tonight (maximum PoPs of 60-90%), mainly
  along and south of I-80. Showers continue Monday into Monday
  night.

- A few strong storms are possible late this afternoon through
  this evening along and south of I-80, with strong wind gusts,
  hail, and locally heavy rain all possible.

- Much cooler temperatures Monday, with highs in the upper 50s
  to low 60s. Temperatures gradually warm back into the 70s by
  late in the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Rest of this afternoon through tonight:

Widely scattered, high-based showers are ongoing across portions
of eastern NE as of 2 PM, with that activity occurring ahead of
a cold front which has moved into northeast NE. Considerable
cloud cover and marginal boundary-layer moisture content are
expected to limit air mass destabilization ahead the front
through the remainder of the afternoon, with MLCAPE likely
remaining below 1000 J/kg. Latest CAM guidance indicates a
gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm development late
this afternoon into evening along and to the south of the cold
front as the boundary layer continues to destabilize.

Current VWP data and model soundings show a largely
unidirectional wind profile with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear,
which is supportive of some storm organization, given sufficient
destabilization. The primary hazard appears to be locally
strong wind gusts (50-60 mph), owing to the character of the
wind profile, and presence of a well-mixed, inverted-v type
boundary-layer structure. Isolated occurrences of mainly small
hail are also possible, as is locally heavy rainfall.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to evolve into a band
across southeast NE and southwest IA this evening (PoPs
increasing to 60-90%), along and ahead of the southward-moving
cold front. Overnight, the models hint at that convective band
becoming more disorganized, with the precipitation footprint
expanding north into portions of northeast NE and west-central
IA.


Monday and Monday night:

Showers and a few thunderstorms remain likely (60-80% PoPs)
across southeast NE and southwest IA on Monday, with activity
being focused within a zone of frontogenetical forcing along the
850-mb front. That boundary will settle south on Monday night,
with sub-15% PoPs forecast by Tuesday morning. Widespread clouds
coupled with the influx of a cooler, Canadian air mass will
result in highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday
afternoon.


Tuesday through Saturday:

The 12z global ensemble means indicate a prominent, mid-level
ridge building into central Canada and the north-central U.S. in
the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, with still some signal that a
weak disturbance could move through the ridge over the northern
Plains on Thursday. By Friday into Saturday, the models suggest
the re-strengthening of the mid-level ridge across central North
America. That upper-air pattern evolution will support a
transition back to drier weather, with the possible exception
being on Thursday into Thursday night (15-20% PoPs).

We`ll start this period relatively cool, with highs in the 60s.
Temperatures are expected to gradually warm during the latter
half of the upcoming week, with highs in the 70s forecast from
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa this evening. These
thunderstorms are along and ahead of a cold front beginning to
sweep through the area. Thunderstorms may impact the OMA and LNK
terminals vicinity over the next hour or two. Additional
showery precipitation is expected to linger after thunderstorms
move off to the east. Brief visibility reductions and gusty
winds are possible near heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Northerly winds overspread the area as the front continues to
slide southeast. Scattered light showers linger into the morning
hours. MVFR ceiling may materialize by morning, but confidence
is low. Ongoing showers will tend to keep ceilings VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Chehak