013
FXUS63 KOAX 122011
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
211 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warmth into Saturday. Friday will be the warmest
  day of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- High to potentially very high fire danger Friday afternoon.

- 50-60% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance of accumulating snow
  in the northern reaches of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A pleasant afternoon has developed across the Corn Belt this
afternoon with widespread 50s and lower-60s developing under
mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds are streaming in from the
northwest as the sfc high pressure axis passes through the CWA
from west to east. This has also kept wind speeds under ten
knots. They`re currently out of the north, but will develop and
easterly component this evening and then a southerly component
by Thursday morning.

.THURSDAY...

Temps fall to near 40F and the upper 30s with light winds and
re-cleared skies again to start the day. Convergent southerly
surface winds direct surface moisture into the area and lead to
minor forcing for ascent. A mostly cloudy morning won`t be
enough to stop temps from climbing 3-6 degrees higher than
today.

.FRIDAY...

H5 ridging reaches it`s Nebraskan pinnacle on Friday with
heights about 15dam higher than climatology. That puts
temperatures in the 99th percentile, at least in the western
half of the forecast area. High temps there on Friday are
anticipated to manage middle to upper-70s and record numbers. A
significant spread of temps is expected with temps in western
Iowa peaking only in the mid- to upper 60s. Standing records
sit at 75-1990/Lincoln, 76-1990/Omaha, and 72-2001/Norfolk.

.THE WEEKEND...

A weak cold front is driven through the area early Saturday
morning, resulting in another round of northwesterly winds.
Temps will only slip a handful of degrees. The front will pass
through with no precip and only a few hours of reduced sunlight.
Sunday will be another ten degrees cooler or so with highs
primarily in the 50s.

.EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A closed low off the California coast this weekend will work
through the Intermountain West and sweep through the Central
Plains on Monday. Timing and placement of the low still have
some disagreement among 12Z global guidance. This could have
implications on p-type. The EPS (Euro ensemble) has accumulating
snow in significantly fewer members than does the GEFS (GFS
ensemble). Will stick with the current forecast of a 10% chance
of accumulating snow in any part of the forecast area with
northern reaches deserving the best bet. Most locations are
likely to stick with a (very cold) rain (50-60% PoPs). Temps
behind the departing wave will be cooler. Expect highs to lag
seasonal norms with numbers peaking in the mid-40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Mostly clear skies today leaves the TAF forecast in the VFR
category over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain under 10
knots through Thursday morning, generally turning from the
northwest (now), to the east (Wednesday evening) and eventually
the south (Thursday morning).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen