


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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860 FXUS63 KOAX 160508 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers lingering through the remainder of this afternoon, then turning breezy and warmer on Thursday. - A chance (maximum PoPs of 30-50%) of shower and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday night, with an additional round of showers possible (15-25% PoPs) Saturday into Saturday night. - Becoming windy Saturday afternoon into evening, with patchy frost possible in northeast Nebraska on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Late this afternoon through Thursday: The current upper-air pattern features a deep trough across the Interior West, with an associated closed low over NV, and downstream ridging over the central U.S. Between those features, early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a couple low-amplitude disturbances tracking through eastern CO and NE. Forcing for ascent attendant to those features are contributing to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the eastern-most of which are currently moving through portions of eastern NE and southwest IA. The associated cloud cover has slowed daytime heating, so this afternoon`s highs have been adjusted downward in those areas. The ongoing convection in our area is expected to shift to the east by late afternoon/early evening; however, it remains unclear as to whether scattered showers and thunderstorms currently over southwest NE will eventually reach our area later today. On Thursday, the NV mid/upper-level low mentioned above is forecast to accelerate northeast into the northern High Plains, which will induce the deepening of a surface low over the Dakotas, and gusty, south winds across our area. Given the current vegetative greenness and minimum relative humidity of 35-45%, we don`t currently anticipate any wildfire concerns. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than those today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thursday night into Friday night: An elongated vorticity ribbon trailing the lead low moving into south-central Canada will progress east through the mid-MO Valley in tandem with a weakening surface front. Forcing associated with that feature coupled with warm air and moisture advection along a low-level jet will support the potential for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface boundary. Accordingly, this forecast update will continue to advertise 30-50% PoPs overspreading the area Thursday night into Friday, with similar precipitation chances lingering in southeast NE and southwest IA Friday night. The models indicate a corridor of stronger instability developing ahead of the front across northeast KS into northwest MO on Friday afternoon, which could support a few strong to severe storms. So, we`ll be keeping an eye on those details, in the event that the boundary slows, leading to an increasing severe risk in far southeast NE and southwest IA. Highs on Friday are expected to be mainly in the 70s. This weekend: The 12z global models are in good agreement in showing a rapidly intensifying mid-level trough over the central U.S. on Saturday, with an associated cold front surging through our area. Winds will strengthen considerably from the northwest behind the front, and we`ll be monitoring model trends to determine the extent of any wildfire risk. The forecast will indicate 15-25% PoPs Saturday into Saturday night to account for any shower activity occurring along and behind the cold front. Highs on Saturday will range from 60s behind the front to 70s ahead of it. Decreasing winds and the influx of cooler air into the region could support patchy frost across northeast NE on Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday are expected to top out in the 60s. Early next week: Latest ensemble mean data have come into slightly better agreement in the progression of another mid-level trough through the north-central U.S. in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. A surface front will likely accompany that mid-level system, with 15-20% PoPs included in the forecast on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle. Main changes for this issuance was inclusion of low level wind shear at KLNK from 07z to 10z as guidance has shifted potential slightly eastward. Otherwise, have refined timing of wind gust arrival at all three terminals after 14z, with gustiness likely to continue past 00z. Low level wind shear may develop again after 03z at KOMA and KLNK. A 20 percent chance for a shower or storm exists at KOFK primarily after 00z, but given low confidence have kept mentions out for this issuance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Castillo