860
FXUS63 KOAX 160508
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers lingering through the remainder of
  this afternoon, then turning breezy and warmer on Thursday.

- A chance (maximum PoPs of 30-50%) of shower and thunderstorms
  Thursday night into Friday night, with an additional round of
  showers possible (15-25% PoPs) Saturday into Saturday night.

- Becoming windy Saturday afternoon into evening, with patchy
  frost possible in northeast Nebraska on Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Late this afternoon through Thursday:

The current upper-air pattern features a deep trough across the
Interior West, with an associated closed low over NV, and
downstream ridging over the central U.S. Between those
features, early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a couple
low-amplitude disturbances tracking through eastern CO and NE.
Forcing for ascent attendant to those features are contributing
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the eastern-most of
which are currently moving through portions of eastern NE and
southwest IA. The associated cloud cover has slowed daytime
heating, so this afternoon`s highs have been adjusted downward
in those areas.

The ongoing convection in our area is expected to shift to the
east by late afternoon/early evening; however, it remains
unclear as to whether scattered showers and thunderstorms
currently over southwest NE will eventually reach our area later
today.

On Thursday, the NV mid/upper-level low mentioned above is
forecast to accelerate northeast into the northern High Plains,
which will induce the deepening of a surface low over the
Dakotas, and gusty, south winds across our area. Given the
current vegetative greenness and minimum relative humidity of
35-45%, we don`t currently anticipate any wildfire concerns.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than those today, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.


Thursday night into Friday night:

An elongated vorticity ribbon trailing the lead low moving into
south-central Canada will progress east through the mid-MO
Valley in tandem with a weakening surface front. Forcing
associated with that feature coupled with warm air and moisture
advection along a low-level jet will support the potential for
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface
boundary. Accordingly, this forecast update will continue to
advertise 30-50% PoPs overspreading the area Thursday night into
Friday, with similar precipitation chances lingering in southeast
NE and southwest IA Friday night.

The models indicate a corridor of stronger instability
developing ahead of the front across northeast KS into northwest
MO on Friday afternoon, which could support a few strong to
severe storms. So, we`ll be keeping an eye on those details, in
the event that the boundary slows, leading to an increasing
severe risk in far southeast NE and southwest IA.

Highs on Friday are expected to be mainly in the 70s.


This weekend:

The 12z global models are in good agreement in showing a
rapidly intensifying mid-level trough over the central U.S. on
Saturday, with an associated cold front surging through our
area. Winds will strengthen considerably from the northwest
behind the front, and we`ll be monitoring model trends to
determine the extent of any wildfire risk. The forecast will
indicate 15-25% PoPs Saturday into Saturday night to account for
any shower activity occurring along and behind the cold front.

Highs on Saturday will range from 60s behind the front to 70s
ahead of it. Decreasing winds and the influx of cooler air into
the region could support patchy frost across northeast NE on
Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday are expected to top out in the
60s.


Early next week:

Latest ensemble mean data have come into slightly better
agreement in the progression of another mid-level trough
through the north-central U.S. in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.
A surface front will likely accompany that mid-level system,
with 15-20% PoPs included in the forecast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle.
Main changes for this issuance was inclusion of low level wind
shear at KLNK from 07z to 10z as guidance has shifted potential
slightly eastward. Otherwise, have refined timing of wind gust
arrival at all three terminals after 14z, with gustiness likely
to continue past 00z. Low level wind shear may develop again
after 03z at KOMA and KLNK. A 20 percent chance for a shower or
storm exists at KOFK primarily after 00z, but given low
confidence have kept mentions out for this issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Castillo