622
FXUS63 KOAX 192102
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
302 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of fog/drizzle is expected overnight, with
  visibilities dropping to near one mile after 2 AM.

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 20-60% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

- Thanksgiving temperatures look slightly cooler than normal
  for this time of year (around 45 degrees for Omaha).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a mid/upper low pushing
further into the Colorado River Valley underneath amplified heights
that transition into largely zonal flow over the eastern two-
thirds of the CONUS. Zooming in locally, low stratus continues
to erode from west to east, helping temperatures play catch-up
to some extent as highs are forecast to reach the low-to-md 50s
under the peeks of sun while the dreary eastern half of the
forecast area stays in the 40s. Southerly winds with a few gusts
of 20 mph in far northeast Nebraska will begin shifting
overnight as a frontal passage begins pushing into the area.

Overnight, visibility reductions are once again the main concern as
the low-level profile moistens up behind the advancing cold front,
while cooling ahead of the front along a local surface high pressure
axis serves as a focal point for more shallow and patch fog
formation. The better bet for widespread coverage between the two
areas appears to be the lower visibility behind the front where
enough lift will be present for drizzle, while the pre-frontal fog
take on a more patchy look, relying on radiational cooling
overnight. The drizzle will be more transient, and begin to move
into northeast Nebraska between 12-2 AM before arriving to
Omaha/Lincoln by 6-8 AM, with fog being on the table after 4 AM for
areas ahead of the front. For the remainder of Thursday, low clouds
and drizzle may be slow to erode, making high temperatures a game of
how much sun will fill in behind the decreasing clouds. Highs as of
now are forecast to hit the 50s, but still a tick below previous
forecasts.

Friday and Beyond:

The aforementioned mid/upper low to the southwest is forecast to
eject from the lee of the Rockies Friday, deepening a surface system
and bringing meaningful rainfall to the Central Plains that only
clips far southern Nebraska and Iowa -- leaving most of the forecast
area dry. Expect plenty of cloud cover throughout the day, with
temperatures taking a dip from Thursday`s highs down to around or
just below 50 degrees. The maximum amount forecast rainfall-wise
will occur near the Nebraska/Kansas border and will be close to half
an inch, with no snowfall expected.

Saturday and Sunday are poised to be dry, and warmer as mid/upper
heights increase slightly ahead of another ejecting California low
underneath subtle ridging. Highs are poised to reach into the upper
50s and low 60s, making for a great weekend to get together or do
outside chores ahead of a busy holiday week. This ejecting system so
far has a northern lean compared to Friday, with rain overspreading
the forecast area Monday and lingering into Tuesday (no snow
expected). Behind this system, extra help from a clipper system
diving southeast from Canada should result in a big cool down in
temperatures compared to where we`ve been lately. In addition, the
bottom edge of the clipper system may try and bring a sprinkle or
flurry to the area Wednesday or Thursday. Highs around Thanksgiving
(outside of the oven) are looking cool and in the upper 30s to
low 40s, but our normals for this time of year are close to 45
so nothing too abnormal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions from this morning have given way this afternoon
to increasingly widespread VFR conditions and leftover MVFR
ceilings at KOMA/KLNK. Low clouds and restrictions will slowly
erode from west to east this afternoon, leaving the area all VFR
by 21z. Overnight, a wind shift will slowly move through the
area, bringing areas of fog/drizzle behind it through the
morning hours, lasting longer at KOMA/KLNK. The forecast right
now represents more optimistic visibilities at 5SM, and if the
signal for worse conditions holds, IFR to LIFR visibilities are
on the table.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen