105
FXUS63 KOAX 282137
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
337 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slick roads this evening deteriorating tonight with travel
  becoming very difficult to impossible in some areas Saturday.
  If you have travel plans, consider delaying them.

- A mix of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain or drizzle will
  become increasingly widespread late this afternoon into
  evening. A change over to all snow occurs from north to south
  tonight into Saturday.

- The heaviest snow is expected from west-central and southwest
  Iowa into east-central and northeast Nebraska. Highest ice
  accumulations are forecast across southeast Nebraska into
  southwest Iowa.

- Both the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory have
  been expanded.

- Cold settles in for the rest of the weekend and the start of
  next week. Temperatures will warm up Tuesday, persisting
  through the end of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Rest of this afternoon through Saturday night:

The going forecast remains largely on track with minor changes
made to the snow and ice accumulations, and the counties
included in the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather
Advisory. More details below.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a vigorous mid-level
trough over the northern Rockies, which is forecast to undergo
considerable amplification as it moves into the central part of
the U.S. on Saturday. Recent model data have come into better
agreement in the track of the associated surface low with that
feature moving along the KS-OK border tonight and then through
eastern KS and northern or central MO on Saturday. The models
have trended colder with the boundary-layer conditions to the
north of the surface low track across our area, which results in
a potentially longer duration of snow for some areas, and
associated higher snow totals.

Warm advection attendant to a weak mid-level disturbance moving
through SD has contributed to a mix of light snow, sleet, and
freezing drizzle across parts of the area so far today. Webcams
in northeast NE and west-central IA show a dusting of snow on
the ground with roads becoming slick in those areas. Continued
warm advection will support a gradually expanding shield of
precipitation this evening, which will start out light before
becoming heavier into the overnight hours.

Model soundings suggest that the depth of the saturated layer
aloft may decrease late this afternoon into evening before
deepening into the favorable ice/snow-growth zone overnight into
Saturday. As such, precipitation will likely remain a mix of
light snow, sleet, and light freezing rain or drizzle into this
evening, which will contribute to deteriorating road conditions
across much of the area. By late this evening and continuing
through the overnight hours into Saturday, a change over to all
snow is expected to occur from north to south.

That changeover process remains complicated as the models
depict varying locations of the transition zone between solid
and freezing/liquid precipitation temporarily becoming quasi-
stationary along or just to the south of I-80 overnight into
Saturday morning. That uncertainty is captured nicely by the
12z HREF, which indicates the greatest variability in member-
accumulated snow along a line from Wahoo through the southern
part of the Omaha metro to between Oakland, IA and Red Oak, IA.
As such, confidence in snowfall amounts is lowest along that
axis. To the north of that axis, it still appears that a band
of heavy snow will develop with the highest accumulations of up
to 6-12" expected in the Harlan, IA and Onawa, IA vicinities,
decreasing with westward extent in east-central and northeast
NE. To the south of the transition zone, snow totals from a
trace up to three inches are forecast with ice accumulations up
to 0.1-0.15".

Winds will strengthen through the day Saturday with gusts up to
35 to 40 mph expected during the afternoon. The highest snow
rates are expected to precede the strongest winds, which will
limit the potential for true blizzard conditions. Nonetheless,
plan on considerable blowing and drifting snow Saturday into
Saturday night, which coupled with the preceding ice
accumulation will lead to very difficult to impossible travel
in some areas. Temperatures could hover around the freezing mark
along the KS border with precipitation remaining light rain
into Saturday morning. But even there, the potential exists for
flash freeze conditions by late morning into Saturday afternoon
as colder air surges south.

Given the above considerations, the Winter Storm Warning has
been expanded to include Douglas, Sarpy, Dodge, and Stanton
Counties with the Winter Weather Advisory expanded across the
remainder of our area.


Sunday into next week:

Another short-wave trough is forecast to move through the
northern and central Plains Sunday night into Monday, leading to
another chance (20-50% PoPs) of light snow, especially in
southeast NE and southwest IA. Otherwise, the primary hazard
for this time period is the cold weather. Highs only in the
teens and 20s on Sunday are expected to warm slightly into the
20s by Monday with overnight lows in the single digits to around
15. The coldest temperatures are expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning when some locations could approach zero.
Overnight wind chills will be in the single digits above and
below zero.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected in the Tuesday-
Thursday timeframe with highs in 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Light snow currently ongoing at KOFK is expected to shift east
of the terminal location within the next hour or two. Later this
afternoon, a light wintry mix of precipitation is forecast to
develop across much of the area. A transition to all snow is
expected later this evening into the overnight hours. The onset
of precipitation will coincide with gradually lowering ceilings
and visibilities with IFR to LIFR conditions developing tonight
into Saturday morning. Southeast winds of 10-13 kt this
afternoon will switch to east tonight and then northeast or
north by Saturday morning when speeds will begin to increase.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     NEZ012-015-018-032>034-044-045-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     NEZ016-030-031-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     NEZ011-017.
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     IAZ043-055-056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW/Mead
AVIATION...Mead