233
FXUS63 KOAX 141656
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1156 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than average temperatures top out in the upper 80s and
  lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-60% PoPs) into
  early next week. Best severe-weather potential currently
  appears to be Tuesday, with slightly less chance on Saturday,
  Sunday, and Monday.

- Highs continue to hover around 90 into early next week, before
  a brief cool down arrives Wednesday.

- Chances are increasing for oppressive heat moving into the
  Central Plains late next week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show a compact
shortwave slowly continuing its exit to the east through the Mid-
Mississippi Valley while the Central and Northern High Plains are
alight with various convective clusters that are pushing eastward
through the lazy mid/upper flow. Looking at the surface locally, a
stationary front stretches from north-central Nebraska through
Neligh to Onawa, allowing low stratus and lowered visibilities to 5
miles to ooze southward from the SD/IA/MN border region. To the
north of that front, we`ve seen a few elevated storms ignite, but
ultimately amount to a few downpours and some rumbles of thunder.
Lingering clouds blowing off from the High Plains convection
overnight should work to take the edge off once again from the
previously forecasted highs for this afternoon, which currently are
expected to top out within a couple of degrees of 90, still keeping
the trend of summer-like temperatures. Precipitation/storm guidance
has been rather poor over the last 24 hours, with several different
scenarios being display between the latest runs of the CAMs. What is
more certain, is that we`ll have two potential focuses for storm
activity today, one associated with shortwaves pushing through the
area from the west, and other being storms initiating off of the
aforementioned front oriented across northeast Nebraska into
Iowa. Weak wind fields through much of the vertical column
continue to be carried by modest thermodynamics, and what storms
do form, will be capable of 1" hail and 60 mph winds during
their short life cycles. Models highlight 3 PM to 9 PM as the
primary window for storms, but they could be pushed slightly
later if a sufficiently-organized outflow can continue to kick
out storms as it drifts southward. The HRRR however shows
little-to-no convection through the entirety of the day through
the forecast area, with it`s more frequent update cycle being
the one to monitor for trends in the quickly changing mesoscale
environment. Overall, chances top out in the 25-35% range,
largely owing to the disparate scenarios.

Sunday should see only slightly cooler highs topping out in the
upper 80s, while once again holding storm chances that will be
dependent on the mesoscale environment. CAMs highlight
corridors of convergence oriented from south-to-north, with
storm coverage being limited by how strong that convergence
ends up being. Nonetheless, modestly-steep lapse rates from
700-500 mb and DCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg will be supportive
of damaging hail and wind once again, while movement will be
based on the storm outflow traveling to the south and east.
CAMs for now are more consistent with timing of initiation of
around 3 PM as the "pulse-ey" movement slowly moving southeast
into the evening hours.

Monday and Tuesday:

By the start of the work week, we`ll begin seeing the mid/upper
pattern turning more progressive as a southwesterly jet streak
intrudes from the California Coast into the Intermountain West,
diminishing as it pushes eastward after amplifying a shortwave that
will move into the forecast area Tuesday. At the surface, we`re
still expecting to be in the thick of a moisture rich airmass,
fenced in to the north by a stationary front across SD/IA. While
exact details look to be murky (especially in this more weakly-
forced pattern), models signal a southwest-to northeast
oriented ribbon of increased instability Monday as a source
region for convection that could stretch across north-central
Nebraska into southeast South Dakota, affecting eastern Nebraska
and Iowa overnight. This overnight convection would then push
southward the better airmass, with the forecast area being
bisected by a front. Models focus precipitation along it much of
the afternoon and evening hours before being swept away by the
aforementioned shortwave by early Wednesday. Overall shear
should be on the increase Monday, increased further by Tuesday
with hodographs holding ample low-level curvature to raise
tornado concerns. Prolonged storm initiation along the sluggish
front Tuesday before it`s swept out also signals chances for
heavy rain, which we are outlooked in a level 2 of 4 risk by the
WPC. Monday/Tuesday continue to be the best bet of the next 7
days to see organized severe storms and flooding, with details
coming more and more into focus as we approach.

Wednesday and Beyond:

In the wake of the outgoing shortwave Wednesday, we`ll see a break
in the summer-like temperatures spread to the entire forecast area,
ushering in a gorgeous day that will top out within a few degrees of
80 as a northwesterly breeze blows. The latter half of the forecast
period also is trending drier, and hotter for Friday into next
weekend. By Friday, we`ll see a squat ridge transition across the
southern tier of states, while a more potent low-level thermal
environment orients itself across the High Plains, pointed towards
the forecast area. It`s still a ways out, but we`ll be seeing the
hottest temperatures we`ve seen this year, with highs topping out in
the mid-90s and heat warnings not being out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected with relatively standard speeds of
5-15 knot winds out of the south over the next 24 hours. The
primary concern with this TAF period will be the threat of
showers and thunderstorms that may develop. Best chances will be
between 5pm and 3am for areas along the South Dakota state line,
but with odds near 30% or lower, have opted not to include in
the TAFs at this time. Best odds would be at KOFK and KOMA.
KLNK`s chances at storms are closer to 10%. Storms could be
severe with 60 mph wind gusts the primary concern but heavy rain
and reduced visibility as an additional impact.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen