200
FXUS63 KOAX 271904
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures continue today & tomorrow, with
  highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Isolated showers will be
  possible (15-30% chance) across the NE-KS border tonight and
  northeast NE on Thursday.

- Fog development is expected overnight into Thursday morning,
  with patchy visibility under 2 miles expected.

- Cooler temperatures stick around through the holiday weekend
  with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with periodic chances for
  showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a mid- to upper-level
ridge over the southern Plains, while a high amplitude trough
dominates the eastern CONUS. This setup maintains northwesterly flow
aloft across much of the region. Isentropic lift combined with an
approaching shortwave disturbance has already sparked showers across
central and eastern KS, some of which may brush the NE-KS border
into the overnight period. PoPs remain in the 15-30% range.

Otherwise, seasonably cool conditions persist with highs topping out
in the uppers 70s to low 80s under breezy southwesterly winds
through the afternoon. Have opted to subtly bump up high
temperatures this afternoon as cloud cover has unperformed. Winds
will subside overnight, setting the stage for fog development.
The greatest potential for widespread fog lies across east-
central NE, where richer low- level moisture is in place.

Fog is expected to gradually dissipate after sunrise, giving way to
another cool day with highs again in the upper 70s to low 80s. By
Thursday, a weak surface boundary sliding through, supported by
another subtle shortwave, may spark a few isolated showers across
northeast NE. While CAM guidance continues to hint at this signal,
forecast soundings show a notably dry sub-cloud layer, so PoPs have
been kept in the 15-20% range.

Friday and Beyond...

Heading into the holiday weekend, the ridge over the central Plains
will gradually dampen and retrograde toward the Four Corners region.
This will open the door for a series of disturbances to slide
through the area, bringing periodic precipitation chances into early
next week. Several rounds of showers are expected, with PoP
periodically peaking in the 30-50% range. Extended periods of
cloudy, dreary conditions are anticipated through much of the
holiday weekend. Exact timing and placement of precipitation chances
is low and will likely depend on how previous disturbances and their
remnants evolve.

Severe weather potential remains low given the limited instability,
though hydrological concerns will need to be monitored given the
repeated rounds of rainfall. Temperatures will stay on the cool side
through at least Monday, with highs holding in the mid 70s to low
80s as overnight lows dip into the 50s and low 60s.

Forecast confidence decreases quickly beyond the weekend, as long-
range guidance maintains zonal to northwesterly flow aloft while a
high-amplitude trough swings from Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the
Great Lakes region. Day-to-day temperatures variations are likely,
but overall, the cool and periodically wet pattern looks to
persist. The CPC`s 8-14 day outlook continues to favor below-
average temperatures for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening
hours. Southwesterly winds will gust at 20-24 kts this afternoon
before gradually calming under 12 kts after 22-00Z. A few
scattered showers will be possible (30% chance) near the
Nebraska-Kansas border through the evening, though they are
expected to remain south of the terminals.

Fog development is expected overnight (after 08Z) over much of
east- central Nebraska. The highest confidence in impacts,
generally in the MVFR to IFR range, is at KLNK and KOFK.
Confidence is low in impacts at KOMA at this time. Conditions
are expected to improve after 13Z, with a return to VFR
conditions expected at all terminals by the late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood