581
FXUS63 KOAX 301034
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
534 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cool and wet holiday weekend is in store for much of the
  area.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rain with embedded storms from today
  through Labor Day may lead to flooding in some areas. The
  threat of damaging winds and hail remains low.

- Cooler temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s continue mid to
  late next week with more comfortable humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today through Monday:

Early morning water vapor imagery indicates a vorticity maximum
progressing through western NE, with other more subtle impulses
present within the prevailing northwest flow from eastern MT
into the Dakotas. The 00z models continue to indicate that these
separate disturbances will coalesce into a closed midlevel
circulation, which will track very slowly southeast through the
area in tandem with a weak surface low. As a result, cool and
wet conditions are expected this Labor Day weekend, with the
primary concern being the potential for heavy rainfall and
associated flooding.

Last evening`s upper-air sounding sampled a seasonably moist
air mass, with a precipitable water of around 1.5", which is
around the 90th percentile for this location at this time of
year. That moisture will combine with forcing for ascent
preceding the midlevel low to foster multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms across our area through Labor Day. For today,
the CAMs indicate the greatest heavy-rainfall threat developing
along the U.S. 281 corridor between O`Neill and Grand Island,
with the highest PoPs (60-80+%) across our western counties.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to become more
widespread across our area tonight, with considerable model
spread in where the heaviest rain might occur.

Given the recent dry weather, area soils should be receptive to
the initial rainfall, with 1,3, and 6-hr flash flood guidance
generally in the 2-3" range. As such, we are planning to hold
off on a flood watch for now. However, convective trends will be
monitored for a possible issuance later today.

As mentioned above, periods of rainfall are expected to continue
on Sunday into Monday, with the various ensemble systems
indicating the heaviest storm-total rainfall occurring across
eastern NE. Potential amounts range from around a half inch on
the low end (25th percentile) to 2-3" on the high end (75th
percentile). Local amounts up to 4-5" are possible, especially
in our western counties.

Severe weather potential is expected to remain low due to the
limited instability forecast. However, the presence of the
midlevel low could support isolated funnel occurrences,
especially on Sunday afternoon.

Considerable cloudiness and areas of rain will hold daytime
temperatures in the 60s and 70s.


Tuesday through Friday:

A potent shortwave trough and associated mid/upper-level wind
maxima over central Canada on Tuesday are forecast to dive south
and form a deep, closed low over the Great Lakes region by late
in the work week. That upper-air system will be attended by a
cold front, which is expected to push through the mid-MO Valley
on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This forecast update
will maintain a chance (20-30% PoPs) of showers along and ahead
of the front Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with dry conditions
thereafter. Highs in the 70s on Tuesday are forecast to fall
into the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to
gradually increase in areal coverage today into tonight. Initial
development has already occurred in northeast NE (near KOFK),
with increasing chances at KLNK and KOMA by about 18z and 20z,
respectively. The best potential for thunderstorms currently
appears to be at KOFK early this afternoon, and that has been
accounted for with a TEMPO group. The forecast will indicate
prevailing VFR conditions today, though brief periods of MVFR
ceilings and/or visibilities are possible with any heavier
shower occurring at the terminal location. There is a higher
confidence in MVFR ceilings developing tonight at KOFK and
KLNK. Southeast winds at less than 10 kt today are expected to
become more easterly tonight at similar speeds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead