849
FXUS63 KOAX 160843
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
343 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warmer today, with gusts of 25-35 mph or more
  expected.

- A chance (maximum PoPs of 30-50%) of shower and thunderstorms
  tonight into Friday night, with an additional round of
  showers possible (15-25% PoPs) Saturday into Saturday night.

- Becoming windy Saturday afternoon into evening, with patchy
  frost possible in northeast Nebraska on Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to feature the deep
trough over the Interior West, with ridging scooting farther east
across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Yesterday morning`s
warm front has lifted north into South Dakota before arcing
southeast through central Iowa, leaving a warm airmass across
eastern Nebraska and southeast Iowa that will spring board
temperatures right back around 80 degrees at their highest. Rain
chances on the order of about 15% are holding on across far eastern
Nebraska and western into central Iowa where meager mid-level height
falls help give a slight nudge into some elevated instability that
should fizzle by mid-morning inf favor of increasing action over
western Nebraska where the surface influence of the
aforementioned trough will be ejecting trough, leaving a
surface trough and cold/Pacific front in its stead. Shower and
embedded storm chances will hold near those two features, moving
through central Nebraska and into the forecast area late this
afternoon and into the early evening. Latest CAM output does
seem to signal that the pre-frontal trough and cold front will
go back and forth being the center of attention for precip
activity, with meager rainfall values (0.1" or less) forecast
due to the poor timing of the their passage through much of the
area. In addition to this, gusty winds are expected to ramp up
with the strongest staying across northeast Nebraska at 35+ mph.

By sunrise Friday the cold front is forecast to be placed along
a line from Columbus to Sioux City, clearing through the
forecast area by 2 PM. As it does pass through the area, a
ragged line of elevated showers will join it, and give very
light precipitation and perhaps a rumble of thunder -- a
contrast from the previous potential that had higher severe
potential and a slower-moving cold front. No severe weather is
anticipated, with a few rumbles of thunder still being possible
from the tallest of those ragged showers as the front departs
and leaves us with slightly cooler highs in the mid 70s.

Saturday and Beyond:

Heading into the weekend,  we`ll have to deal with the remainder of
the broad trough that will pivot through much of the CONUS, swinging
through one last chance at some light precipitation as a back-end
mid-level vorticity ribbon arrives late Saturday afternoon into the
overnight hours. We`ll be cleaned out from most of the moisture that
we had to end the work week, with another swing and a miss for those
wanting meaningful rainfall. Highs are taken down another notch for
both days, with 70-degree highs only holding on for southwest Iowa
and southeast Nebraska before spreading 60s for highs to the entire
area Sunday. Those cooler temperatures will help allow for the
nighttime to reach colder than we`ve seen this season, meaning
our first chances for patch frost for portions of the area.

Model consensus has increased for the progression of the mid/upper
pattern early next week, with a low amplitude ridge sneaks through
the area ahead of another trough digging and diving southeastward
from Alberta/Saskatchewan. Highs in the 70s return only for
Monday before 60s take hold for the remainder of the week. Our
best bet for rain will come with that diving shortwave/trough
Monday, with westerly/northwesterly flow dominating and leaving
little in terms of the recovery of columnar moisture to allow
for rain chances heading towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle.
Main changes for this issuance was inclusion of low level wind
shear at KLNK from 07z to 10z as guidance has shifted potential
slightly eastward. Otherwise, have refined timing of wind gust
arrival at all three terminals after 14z, with gustiness likely
to continue past 00z. Low level wind shear may develop again
after 03z at KOMA and KLNK. A 20 percent chance for a shower or
storm exists at KOFK primarily after 00z, but given low
confidence have kept mentions out for this issuance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Castillo