393
FXUS63 KOAX 292334 CCA
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (20%) for isolated showers or storms
  through early this evening. Any storms may produce heavy
  rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
  eastern Nebraska late tonight into Thursday morning. Heavy
  rainfall will again be possible under the strongest storms.

- A more widespread line of thunderstorms is likely to move across
  the region later on Thursday into Friday morning. Damaging wind
  will be possible with the initial line of storms, along with
  heavy rain and small hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current Conditions

The morning convective complex has largely dissipated as of 1 PM
with a few lingering showers remaining. The weak, slow-moving
short wave trough that helped drive this system is centered
over central KS with a slow southeastward progression, and a
generally lessening influence this far north. The morning storms
developed in a rather moist airmass, with low level moisture
feed off the Gulf and a mid/upper level moisture feed around the
ridge from the Baja region. This helped the stronger cells to
produce 2-3" per hour rainfall rates where they stalled. This
atmospheric moisture content is actually expected to increase
slightly in the next 36 hours with the approach of a stronger
short wave trough out of the CA/NV region. This should bring
PWAT of 2-2.2" to parts of the area in advance of the next round
of storms. The incoming western short wave trough will dampen
the upper ridge and cool temperatures a bit over the next few
days, in addition to precip potential.

Through Early Thursday

Some weak smaller-scale forcing will rotate around the ridge
tonight with a slight increase in low level jet speed over
central KS. This will increase moisture transport into western
parts of the forecast area with some LLJ convergence gradually
lifting northeast into the forecast area around sunrise or
shortly thereafter. This should support another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms with potential for pockets
of heavy rain. This area of weak forcing may persist into the
early afternoon hours, with the main question being how
widespread any convective showers/storms can be. Deep forcing is
weak, but capping is very limited and when paired with a deep
moist environment it probably won`t take much forcing to sustain
scattered storms. If convection is more widespread tomorrow, it
may limit daytime heating and instability recovery which would
lessen the late day severe potential...but fewer storms during
the day may warrant a bit more of a damaging wind potential for
late Thursday.

Late Thursday into Friday

The main show is expected on Thursday evening as the stronger
deep layer forcing pushes east. Expect the cold front entering
north central Nebraska to convect along the boundary. This will
likely transition quickly into an MCS as numerous updrafts in
close proximity conglomerate into a single forward propagating
cold pool. The theta-e and MLCAPE axes will extend from that
north central NE convection to the southeast while low level
shear vectors point east or east southeasterly. This would
appear to favor individual outflow surges directed toward the
east southeast while the larger MCS outflow system eats toward
the southeast into the instability axis. That instability does
not extend terribly far east of the Missouri River so the
intensity should wane with eastward progression. The wind and
instability fields with this system appear to be sufficient to
support severe wind in segments, but are not forecast to be
impressive enough to support a persistent high-end wind storm
across a wide expanse. Additionally, the moisture content
suggests that rainfall rates could exceed 2" per hour in heavier
cores, so any training elements will need to be monitored for
flooding potential. Showers or a storm may linger into Friday,
but the trough passes east of the area with subsidence
overtaking and drying out the region by late in the day.

Saturday Into Next Week
A rather weak northeastward extension of the upper ridge axis
from the Four Corners region will keep the local area mainly dry
through Monday or so, with surface high pressure slowly drifting
overhead and then east of the area. Highs will be largely in the
80s to low 90s with lows in the 60s in a less humid airmass. By
late Monday into Tuesday, model guidance is strong in bringing a
glancing influence of a strong Canadian trough with a front
sagging toward northern parts of the area. This will bring
thunderstorm chances if the front makes it this far south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A few spotty showers and storms will linger early in the period,
but confidence in one impacting a TAF site is low. Additional
scattered showers and storms are expected to push through the
area from west to east around 10-18Z, but latest guidance is
trending toward a little less coverage, so kept a dry forecast.
As they move through, a few MVFR ceilings could develop, but
kept SCT mention for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain
southeasterly, with some gusts of 18-23 kts on Thursday. Looking
ahead, expect a line of storms to move southeast through the
area Thursday evening, likely after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...CA