801
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers and drizzle will persist into the weekend.
  The highest chances for thunderstorms will be this evening
  into early Saturday. Any precipitation on Halloween looks to
  remain very light.

- A strong weather system moves into the region early next week,
  bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday
  into Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain are possible.

- Highs in the 50s and lingering rain chances remain in the
  forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed a surface warm front just south of
the NE/KS border that will continue to edge northward tonight and
through the day Saturday. North of the front, there is currently a
line of showers and storms associated with some isentropic ascent
and low level warm air advection. These will continue to push north
this afternoon, exiting to the north by around 8 PM. Meanwhile, some
additional precip development is expected as the surface front
pushes through along with some shortwave energy currently over
southwest KS. This precip doesn`t look to reach our south until
around 9 PM, but will overspread much of the area overnight into
early Saturday. Latest short term guidance suggests we`ll see on and
off precip through the day on Saturday, with model soundings
oscillating in and out of saturation, with potential for both
showers and drizzle at times. In addition, can`t completely rule out
a few rumbles of thunder Saturday morning like we had this morning,
though instability will remain pretty limited once again. The light
precip could linger into Halloween evening, but not expecting it to
be too impactful. Sunday will be similar with on and off light
precip, but weak upper level ridging sliding through should yield
more dry time than wet. Otherwise, expect highs in the 60s both days.

Attention then turns to higher and more widespread rain chances to
start next week. A cutoff low currently of the Pacific Northwest
coast will move into the Desert Southwest Sunday and phase up with a
trough currently well out over the Pacific. A surface low will then
spin up east of the Rockies and push through the Plains on Monday
and eventually toward MN by Tuesday/Wednesday. Still some model
spread on exact track and speed of the low, though consensus takes
it through or maybe just west of our forecast area. The system looks
to bring widespread rainfall to the area, potentially heavy at
times, with NAEFS suggesting precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75",
good for the 99th+ percentile or even max of climatology. Still a
lot of details to refine, but should the system linger in the area
longer, some localized flooding could occur. In addition, depending
on track and timing, we could see a severe thunderstorm threat with
various ensemble members suggesting potential for a plume of decent
instability ahead of the system along with the almost certain strong
vertical shear.

Associated precip should exit by late Tuesday or Wednesday with a
cold front passing through and strong northwest winds on the back
side of the system ushering in some slightly cooler air. Still,
daily highs look to remain in the 50s, near or even above average
for this time of year, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A few
various ensemble members also suggest some weaker shortwave energy
sliding through later in the week, giving us continued 15-20%
chances for precip, but a lot of it will be driven by how the
main early- week system behaves.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Largely MVFR ceilings start the period with a frontal system
draped across the area. Latest forecast trends hold conditions
relatively steady at OMA and LNK with light showers and patchy
fog the only weather of note. There remains some uncertainty on
the extent of coverage for IFR ceilings and denser fog.
Probability is low on impacts reaching these terminals. Across
northeast Nebraska, IFR ceilings and denser fog/drizzle remains
more likely. OFK is expected to fall to IFR tonight with a
period of heavy drizzle and LIFR ceilings early Saturday morning
possible. Another round of showers moves into the area with a
low pressure system late Saturday morning. Conditions should
improve to VFR across the area during this time. Winds start out
easterly, but gradually shift towards the southeast and south
tonight into Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Chehak