180
FXUS63 KOAX 011103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of prolonged rainfall between now and Thursday
  evening will result in several inches of rainfall and the
  potential for flash flooding.

- There is a small chance of an isolated strong to severe storm
  or two which may produce gusty winds or a brief tornado
  Wednesday evening.

- Expect drier weather Friday into the start of next week along
  with a return of high temperatures reaching the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The main concern in the near term forecast will be the potential for
a prolonged period of rainfall across areas with fairly saturated
soil. The remnants of what used to be Hurricane Polo will continue
to tap into warm, moist Gulf air as it lifts to the northeast
through the overnight hours and into Thursday. With Pwat values of
1.8"+ and a skinny sounding, expect efficient rainfall overnight and
into tomorrow. Recent trends in models have shown the main area of
rainfall shifting north, closer to the I-80 corridor. By the time
all is said and done with the rainfall, we are still looking at 2-4"
for many areas and localized 5"+ in other areas. Flash flooding will
be possible, as as a result, the Flood Watch will remain in effect
through Thursday evening. Instability will remain limited
overnight; however, with a boundary cutting across eastern
Nebraska and decent shear, can`t entirely rule out a quick spin
up or two.

Friday, the system moves into Missouri and we get a much needed
break from the rain. Skies clear out as high pressure moves in.
Cooler temperatures (60s) will be expected for highs.

Quieter weather is expected heading into the weekend and through the
start of next week as we come under northwest flow. Expect plenty of
sunshine and a drier weather pattern. Weekend highs will be in the
60s and 70s, with widespread 70s expected heading into the start of
next week. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Areas of MVFR stratus are observed at terminals this morning
with showers having largely ended. Fog has also developed just
to the north and west of the KOFK terminal resulting in IFR
ceilings. Expecting fog to lift there in the next hour or two as
stronger northerly winds overspread the terminal. Ceilings
should lift to VFR at terminals throughout the next few hours
and stay that way for the duration of the period, but may see
some lingering clouds around 2,000 to 3,000 feet. These should
scatter out though enough to stay in VFR. North northeasterly
winds will increase in speed by the late morning and afternoon
hours, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. These should subside by 00z
at terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ044-045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Castillo