597
FXUS63 KOAX 311920
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
220 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain showers and embedded thunderstorms could lead to
  localized flooding through Monday.

- Seasonably cool conditions will continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Today through Monday...

A low pressure system continued to drift across the forecast area
today, bringing a smattering of rain showers to the region. By 2 PM,
storm total radar estimated rainfall amounts generally ranged from
0.25 to 0.75, with isolated pockets up to 2.5". PWATS up to 1.4-1.5"
(75-90% of climatology) and moderate warm cloud layer depths around
9000-11000 ft support the potential for moderate rainfall rates, up
to 1-2" per hour, this evening and overnight. However, deep
convection will likely be limited due to our persistent cloud cover
and continuous daytime showers. CAMs suggest some pockets of
stronger instability allowing for development of a few thunderstorms
late this afternoon and evening, but best chance will likely be off
to the southwest of our forecast area, where satellite indicates
breaks in the cloud cover.

Off and on showers will continue into Monday, with the more
persistent precipitation likely along and northeast of a line from
David City to Falls City Nebraska. Coverage will gradually diminish
through the day, with only isolated shower coverage
expected by Monday night. Generally additional amounts of
0.5-1" are expected with isolated pockets of up to 2" possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

A few spotty showers could linger into Tuesday as surface high
pressure builds in. Southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold
front will usher in slightly warmer air, bumping afternoon highs
into the low to mid 70s.

The cold front will move in from northwest to southeast Tuesday
night and Wednesday, brining another round of rain to the region.
Moisture will be more limited with this round, curbing heavy rain
concerns. Temperatures will dip again behind the front, with highs
in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Thursday and Beyond...

A trough over the eastern half of the CONUS will deepen as a low
pressure system churns into the Great Lakes region. This will result
in cool and breezy Fall-like conditions over eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. An embedded shortwave and cold front could move
through Thursday into Friday, potentially bringing yet another
chance for rain. For now will defer to the NBM PoPs, which keep rain
just to our east Thursday night, but this could be shifted westward
in later runs. Temperatures will remain mild in the upper 60s and
low 70s through the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers will continue to move across the region.
Models continue to depict deteriorating conditions, dropping to
MVFR at KOFK by 20Z, and KOMA by 00Z. Eventually all 3 sites are
expected to dip to IFR by around 06Z tonight. Confidence remains
low as to when exactly showers, and incidentally worsening
conditions will arrive at each site, so opted to use TEMPO
groups to cover potential dips in ceilings and visibilities.
Winds will continue from the east at 10 kt or less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG