343
FXUS63 KOAX 082344
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
644 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms for
  portions of Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa. Severe
  weather is possible with damaging winds the main threat.

- Heat Indices increase into the low to mid 100s Tuesday
  afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue throughout much of the week
  into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times,
  including on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A weak front has settled into Northeast Nebraska early this
afternoon. This front will gradually weaken with time.
Temperatures warm into the 80s this afternoon with partly cloudy
skies for most. Back to the west, a complex of thunderstorms is
beginning to develop across central Nebraska. This complex is
forecast to gradually turn into a mature bowing MCS with time.
This activity tracks southeast, mainly into Kansas, but the
northern portion may clip areas near the Kansas border.
Damaging winds would be the main threat with this MCS.
Elsewhere, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
residual front or north of the complex. A strong to severe
thunderstorm remains possible with damaging winds and large hail
the main concerns. It remains muggy tonight with temperatures
in the 70s.

The system that spawned the complex of thunderstorms today will
leave subsidence in its wake. This is anticipated to keep the
area dry and mostly sunny throughout the afternoon on Tuesday.
At the same time, mid-level ridging builds across much of the
plains. Temperatures increase well into the 90s to near 100 with
muggy dewpoints into the 70s. As a result, most the area sees
heat indices in the low to mid 100s prompting a Heat Advisory.
Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, but confidence
in much of this reaching the area remains uncertain. While a
healthy amount of instability will be in place, subtle height
rises and better forcing remains to the west. The latest
forecast guidance dissipates most thunderstorms as they reach
our forecast area. That said, if thunderstorms do reach the
area, severe weather will be a concern. Damaging winds and large
hail would be the main threats.

As a trough approaches the region on Wednesday, a cold front
will sink into the region. Temperatures remain hot, but do
decrease compared to Tuesday. Unlike Tuesday, more forcing will
be in place and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated
by afternoon across the area. This may end up being the day with
the greatest threat for severe weather this week. Continue to
monitor the forecast for the latest details.

Temperatures cool back into the 80s to close out the week and
begin the weekend. Initially, we will have a lower chance of
showers and thunderstorms behind Wednesday`s system, but another
trough looks to take shape by the weekend. Increasing
thunderstorm chances and some severe weather potential may
materialize. Keep tabs on the forecast for your weekend plans.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period, though low-
probability thunderstorms (20-30%) could lead to some brief
periods of MVFR to IFR, most likely at LNK, but possibly OMA.
Most guidance suggests storms this evening will remain to the
south of the TAF sites. However, a few pieces of guidance hint
at a second line of storms pushing east toward LNK around 09Z
and maybe OMA by 11Z, though most guidance suggests the line
will die prior to arriving. If it happens to hold together,
could see some small hail and winds gusting 30-50 kts.
Otherwise, lingering 4000-5000 ft clouds this evening should
dissipate overnight with FEW to SCT clouds at 2500 ft developing
by late morning. Winds will mostly be southeasterly to
southerly, with gusts of 20-30 kts expected by mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-012-015-
     017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...CA