230
FXUS63 KOAX 222255
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will continue to move through from northwest to
  southeast this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms.
  A few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and
  hail.

-Cooler temperatures settle into the region Saturday through
 much of next week with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 40s
 to mid 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Tonight through Saturday...

A broken line of showers and storms moved into northeast Nebraska
this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise, for
the majority of the forecast area, skies remained hazy due to
wildfire smoke aloft, with patchy cloud cover. Temperatures
varied based on location due to the approaching front. By 2 PM,
temperatures had ranged from the 70s over far northeast Nebraska
to the mid 80s over most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s gave us one last muggy
day, with apparent temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s.

The cold front will continue to drift southeast this afternoon and
evening, potentially sparking a few stronger storms, as 1500-2500
J/kg CAPE pools ahead of the boundary. Bulk shear vectors increasing
to 30-40 kts indicate the potential for the development for a few
severe updrafts, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
However, storm development may be limited by relatively weak
midlevel lapse rates. Additionally, the better forcing for ascent
looks to be  off to the northeast of the forecast area.

A few storms may linger into Saturday morning across far southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Patchy fog will be possible once again,
mainly along and east of the Missouri River, but should burn off
with the rising sun. Skies may remain a bit hazy with smoke
tomorrow, but will gradually improve through the day.
Temperatures will be noticeably more pleasant behind the front,
with highs only reaching the mid 70s north of I-80, and closer
to 80s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Sunday and Beyond...

Northwesterly flow aloft combined with high pressure at the surface
should keep us fairly cool and dry through the weekend and into
early next week. A few models hint at weak perturbations rippling
through the upper flow, Sunday through Tuesday, which could
lead to a few showers. But chances look to be less than 15% at
this time.

A better shot at more widespread precipitation looks possible
Thursday, as a stronger shortwave ripples through the region.

Highs will remain in the 70s through most of next week. Overnight
lows will bottom out in the 50s at most locations, with a few spots
dipping into the upper 40s. For reference, lows haven`t hit the 40s
since late May/early June. Based on latest CPC guidance, Below
Normal Temperatures appear probable in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks, giving us a nice taste of Fall for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Thunderstorms working through Lincoln and Omaha now are
producing very heavy rainfall rates at times that are limiting
visibility to 2-3 miles at times with cigs at FL020-040. This
line should clear KOMA and KLNK by about 00Z Saturday with
clearing conditions behind it. MVFR conditions fill out the
remainder of the forecast with northerly winds of about 5 knots
overnight before picking up to 10 knots after sunrise Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen