319
FXUS63 KOAX 190524
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight.
  Severe weather is not expected.

- Cooler and cloudy conditions expected on Saturday with
  additional showers and storms possible (30% chance) across
  extreme southeast NE and southwest IA Saturday evening.

- Cooler conditions expected into the work week, with highs
  generally in the 60s and periodic precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Tonight and Saturday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening displays a
mid-level ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley with
troughing moving into the Intermountain West. A shortwave
disturbance pushing the central/northern Plains has spun up a
surface low over western Nebraska earlier today. Through the day,
the low traversed eastward across the NE/SD border before progressing
into central Iowa by mid-day Saturday. The feature helped to pull a
warm front north into the area and allow high temperatures to climb
into the low to mid 90s today with dewpoints pulling into the low
70s.

Storm development occurred this evening along a surface trough
pushing into eastern Nebraska. While low-level hodographs remained
rather impressive thanks to the LLJ, weak deep layer shear (20-25
kts) limited storm organization. While model soundings exhibited
3000-3500 J/kg of MUCAPE, dry low-levels and capping limited the
amount of instability and low-level shear available to storm. With
this in mind, storms remained generally short-lived and prone to
isolated pockets of strong wind gusts (40-45 mph) as storms quickly
collapsed and allowed for some gusty winds.

A reinforcing cold front will sag southward behind the surface
trough tonight, helping to spark additional scattered thunderstorms
along and behind the front. Instability will taper off through the
overnight period, limiting additional potential for strong to severe
storms. Storm coverage will gradually decrease after daybreak, with
spotty rainfall totals approaching 0.50-1.00" under any heavier
overnight showers.

A much cooler post-frontal airmass will sink into the area on
Saturday behind the cold front, with high temperatures only expected
to peak in the low 70s across northeast Nebraska where thick cloud
cover remains in place. Highs are expected to increase into the mid
80s across southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa, where more
sunshine will be in place. Additional storm development is possible
Saturday evening along the front in extreme southeast NE and
southwest IA. However, model guidance continues to trend towards the
front being south of the NE/KS line before storms initiate, keeping
any additional storm chances capped around 30%.

Sunday and Beyond...

A chilly and damp start to the week is expected as another shortwave
disturbance pushes into the northern Plains and brings another shot
of cooler air and additional precipitation chances to the region.
High temperatures are expected to peak generally in the low 60s
Sunday through Tuesday, with periodic PoPs of 40-60%, particularly
Sunday into Monday. A break in precipitation chances is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday as transient, weak mid-level ridging slides
across the area between disturbances. Yet another shortwave
disturbances is expected to track into the area by Thursday,
bringing PoPs of 15-30%. Highs will remain in the 60s through much
of the work week, with a few spots reaching 70 by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are currently ongoing
between the KOFK and KOMA/KLNK areas, with rain expected to
affect KOFK/KOMA intermittently throughout the overnight hours
with the only restrictions expected to happen at KOFK. Though
they haven`t arrived at the terminal yet, KOFK will see the
worst of the conditions as IFR conditions settle in by 08z,
before improving into MVFR territory while continuing through
the day. Meanwhile KOMA/KLNK will dodge most of the restrictions
(aside from some morning MVFR ceilings at KLNK) with more
widespread ceiling restrictions moving into the area after 00z
tomorrow evening, spreading over the course of the night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen