757
FXUS63 KOAX 212312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
612 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather returns by Wednesday with high temperatures
  falling into the mid 70s to mid 80s through Friday. There will
  be increasing chances for showers and storms Wednesday
  through Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend, with widespread
  90s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Today and Tonight...

A few sub-severe storms dotted the sky across southeast Nebraska this
morning, producing some beneficial rainfall and a bit of small hail.
The weak storms gradually dissipated as they moved south, making way
for a slightly cooler and quiet day. Skies remained hazy as smoke
from Canadian wildfires rode in on the northerly winds. By noon
temperatures had reached the upper 70s and low 80s. Temperatures are
expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with
heat indices about 20 degrees cooler than they were yesterday.

Wednesday through Friday...

A reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives Wednesday, along with some
much needed rainfall. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move in
from the west Wednesday morning, become fairly widespread by noon,
and taper off from north to south through the early afternoon hours.
The day likely won`t be a complete washout, with breaks in the rain
allowing folks to get out and enjoy afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

Additional bursts of shortwave energy will ripple through the region
Wednesday night through Friday morning. This will not only bring
additional shower and thunderstorm chances, but also keep
temperatures well below normal for a couple more days. Highs on
Thursday will stay in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s and low
80s expected Friday. Periods of heavy rain may be possible,
especially over far southeast Nebraska, where probabilities for 1" or
more of rain are around 50-60%.

Saturday and Beyond...

Unfortunately, our cool down looks to be short-lived, as the ridge
axis shifts back to the east this weekend. Temperatures will push
back into the 90s on Saturday, with heat indices flirting with Heat
Advisory criteria again on Sunday.

A few shortwaves may ripple around the outer perimeter of the ridge,
bringing off and on chances for rain. But, this far out, the details
aren`t certain. Overall, CPC outlooks remain warm and machine
learning outlooks keep us locked into a 5-15% chance for severe
storms through early August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the
TAF cycle. Gusty northerly winds subside within the next hour
or two at terminals becoming north northeast under 10 kts.
Winds remain under 10 kts and from the north northeast at most
sites. Confidence has grown for -SHRA to affect KOFK and KLNK
after 16z with this TAF issuance, so have introduced mentions.
Chances remain lowest at KOMA at around 30% so have left out of
TAF for now. Overcast ceilings will drop to 5,000 to 7,000 feet
with the showers, thinning out some just after the TAF cycle
ends.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Castillo