606
FXUS63 KOAX 262333
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances persist across northeast Nebraska this afternoon
  and evening (70-90%). Rain moves into eastern Nebraska and
  west central Iowa overnight (30-50% chance).

- Another round of rain (15-30% chance) generally southeast of a
  line from Fairbury, NE to Harlan, IA Tuesday. Slightly cooler
  with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

- Active pattern continues for the rest of the week into early
  next week with more rain chances. Temperatures remain in the
  60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

1838z KOAX radar imagery depicts an arcing band of precip over
most of north central, northeast, and central Nebraska. Low
stratus has also festered in that general vicinity where the H8
baroclinic zone is per RAP objective analysis. A rather large
temperature contrast is seen too per sfc METARs as areas
underneath the stratus have temps in the low to mid 40s, while
areas in east central and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa
have temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

Over the next few hours, expect to see more precip overspread
eastern Nebraska into west central Iowa as the sfc low, now
over northwest Kansas, lifts northeast. PoPs of 30 to 50% are
forecast for most of the area, while northeast Nebraska will see
higher PoPs of 60 to 90% through at least midnight. There is
still a chance we could see showers linger into the early
morning hours Tuesday too, this time as a sfc cold front pushes
through.

The H5 shortwave will exit the area Tuesday morning while a weak sfc
high moves through. Another compact H5 wave will ride the southwest
flow and clip our far southeastern areas, leading to another round
of low PoPs (15-30%) generally southeast of a line from Fairbury to
Harlan, IA. Expect a slight cool down in highs ranging from the
upper 50s to mid 60s: have trended them a bit down in collaboration
with surrounding offices as the bulk of model guidance suggests NBM
is a bit too warm. H8 warm advection should help spark off some
light rain showers late Tuesday evening along and south of the
Platte River, but chances remain at 20% or less at this time.
Given latest CAM guidance, have added some low PoPs in this
general area for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Another H5 wave rides the southwest flow on Wednesday, this time
tracking along the South Dakota/Nebraska border area into western
Minnesota. A sfc low spins up and tracks northeast of the area
placing us in the warm sector. Will see a plume of 500-1,000 J/kg of
instability overspread portions of eastern Nebraska by Wednesday
afternoon ahead of an approaching sfc cold front. A few storms could
ignite by that timeframe, but any organized severe threat doesn`t
appear probable at this time. The best 0-6km shear appears located
well north of the plume, and the best synoptic scale forcing and
height falls are located in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Machine
learning guidance at the minimum suggests a low 5% chance we could
see a strong to severe storm. PoPs during this timeframe remain at
20 to 40%, peaking to 50 to 70% by Wednesday evening across far
eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

Our active pattern continues through a good chunk of the long term
period as we remain in zonal to southwesterly flow. Expect periodic
rain chances to continue late Thursday night into Friday (50 to 70%
chance) as another mid-level wave approaches from the southwest.
Rain lingers into Saturday, while by Sunday another trof approaches
from the Intermountain West. Lots of spread still seen amongst
guidance though in regards to placement of features.

Highs largely remain in the 60s and 70s for most of the period.
Wednesday appears to be the warmest day with some spots in our far
southeast potentially hitting 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A tricky aviation forecast is set for the next 24 hours, with
scattered showers in place between KOFK and KOMA/KLNK, set to
move into the latter locations within the next 1-2 hours while
KOFK sees increasing mist/drizzle through the night. Flight
conditions will be trending downward, reaching IFR territory
(driven by ceilings) by 02z at KOFK, while KLNK and KOMA have to
wait until 06-09z for MVFR conditions to arrive. KLNK eventually
bottoms out in IFR territory while KOFK dips into LIFR. After
sunrise, all three locations will steadily improve ceiling-wise
and southerly winds will return, with VFR conditions set by the
end of the TAF period at all three sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Petersen